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Population growth, needed economic growth, and social pressures for improved infrastructure coupled to the need for human health and ecological protection and environmental security make systematic and transparent environmental decisionmaking a complex and often difficult task. Evaluating complex technical data and developing feasible risk management options requires procedural flexibility that may not be part of existing evaluative structures. Experience has demonstrated that direct transposition of risk assessment and risk management frameworks (e.g. those developed in the United States and European Union) may not work in regions whose social, legal, historical, political and economic situations are not suitable or prepared for acceptance of these methodologies. Flexible decision-making, including the use and development of acceptable or unacceptable risk levels based on the critical nature of an infrastructure type, is one potential approach to assist risk managers in their decision-making. Unfortunately, the newness of the discussions on the interrelatedness of environmental security and critical infrastructure has yet to produce a unified and comprehensive treatment of the fields. As a result, this paper will describe and define these terms in order to set the stage for discussions of human health and ecological risk assessment and risk management later in the paper. This paper reviews basic concepts defined in the field of risk assessment and extends its applicability to the areas of environmental security and critical infrastructure protection.

Population growth, needed economic growth, and social pressures for improved infrastructure coupled to the need for human health and ecological protection and environmental security make systematic and transparent environmental decision-making a complex and often difficult task. Evaluating complex technical data and developing feasible risk management options requires procedural flexibility that may not be part of existing evaluative structures. Experience has demonstrated that direct transposition of risk assessment and risk management frameworks (e.g. those developed in the United States and European Union) may not work in regions whose social, legal, historical, political and economic situations are not suitable or prepared for acceptance of these methodologies. Flexible decision-making, including the use and development of acceptable or unacceptable risk levels based on the critical nature of an infrastructure type, is one potential approach to assist risk managers in their decision-making. Unfortunately, the newness of the discussions on the interrelatedness of environmental security and critical infrastructure has yet to produce a unified and comprehensive treatment of the fields. As a result, this paper will describe and define these terms in order to set the stage for discussions of human health and ecological risk assessment and risk management later in the paper. This paper reviews basic concepts defined in the field of risk assessment and extends its applicability to the areas of environmental security and critical infrastructure protection.

Water scarcity and quality have been a major concern for Israel and its neighbors. It has been recognized long ago that this problem has to be addressed at the regional level. Many agreements and interactions between the different nations have taken place over the years. Some contentious issues have never been solved to the satisfaction of all. But it is also clear that the nations involved will have to cooperate in the management of water and the environment for the long haul. The onset of the second Intifada in 2000 has put the peace process on hold. It has also led to an interruption of the discussions on water issues, basically at all levels. As a result despite a few small scale private initiatives the region (and in particular the West Bank and Gaza) are suffering from environmental neglect. This is creating a situation which has the potential to lead to further contamination of watershed and affect the water supply of neighboring nations.

Water scarcity and quality have been a major concern for Israel and its neighbors. It has been recognized long ago that this problem has to be addressed at the regional level. Many agreements and interactions between the different nations have taken place over the years. Some contentious issues have never been solved to the satisfaction of all. But it is also clear that the nations involved will have to cooperate in the management of water and the environment for the long haul. The onset of the second Intifada in 2000 has put the peace process on hold. It has also led to an interruption of the discussions on water issues, basically at all levels. As a result despite a few small scale private initiatives the region (and in particular the West Bank and Gaza) are suffering from environmental neglect. This is creating a situation which has the potential to lead to further contamination of watershed and affect the water supply of neighboring nations.

This author (Brauch 2005a) argued that the conceptual ideas of David Mitrany, George Marshall and Jean Monnet were instrumental for 60 years of peace in Europe and for European integration, and those of Mikhail Gorbachev for overcoming the Cold War and contributing to the reunification of the continent. Brauch (2003, 2005) contrasted different security perceptions of narrow with a widened security concept that includes economic, societal and environmental dimensions and other levels of analysis and referents, with a special focus on (Bogardi/ Brauch 2005).

This study evaluates the usefulness of structured non-linear regression models for the prediction of annual ambient fine particulate matter (FPM) concentration distributions. The method developed in this study provides a way to examine and display results for the yearly distribution of FPM when testing emissions control strategy performance. The models are developed using three daily gaseous pollutant concentrations (oxides of nitrogen (NO), sulfur dioxide (SO), and total hydrocarbons (THC)) and four meteorological measures (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) as explanatory variables. The models are fitted using data from the North Long Beach, Rubidoux (Riverside) and Azusa stations in Los Angeles County and Riverside County, CA for a recent 7-year period (1988–1994). The statistical model is tested for the year 1995 based on precursor concentrations and meteorological conditions in that year, and found to provide reasonably good prediction, though the annual average FPM concentration is overestimated by an average of 26 percent across the three stations. The response surfaces of PM concentrations with respect to all input variables are plotted, and the predicted changes in daily, annual average and annual 98th percentile base-year (1995) PM concentrations are predicted for different precursor reductions. The predicted effects of precursor reductions are further explored by comparing predicted and observed FPM concentrations for 1999 (though the absence of THC data for this year restricts this comparison to plausible ranges). The method developed in this study provides a way to examine and display results for the predicted concentration distributions when evaluating emission control strategy performance. The potential usefulness and limitations of a statistical model of this type are discussed.

Water has been recognized as a key natural resource for environmental security, socioeconomic development and human well-being. In the Mediterranean area, sustainable water resources management is a major issue, given the semi-arid climate, the variability of hydrological characteristics and the fragile socio-economic conditions. The majority of the population around the Mediterranean lives in transboundary river basins. Sharing water and securing social and political stability in these regions present several technical and cooperative challenges.

In this paper, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), based on integrated risk assessment, is proposed as a tool for conflict resolution in internationally shared water resources management. The case of the Mesta/Nestos River in South Eastern Europe (SEE) illustrates the methodology.

Water has been recognized as a key natural resource for environmental security, socioeconomic development and human well-being. In the Mediterranean area, sustainable water resources management is a major issue, given the semi-arid climate, the variability of hydrological characteristics and the fragile socio-economic conditions. The majority of the population around the Mediterranean lives in transboundary river basins. Sharing water and securing social and political stability in these regions present several technical and cooperative challenges.

The Marshlands of Mesopotamia are caught in the middle of regional water scarcity. The marshlands in Iraq are at the bottom of the flow of water from Syria, Turkey, and Iran before it drains into the Arabian (Persian) Gulf. As a result the marshlands reflect the impacts of dams, population growth, and over extraction of water from neighboring countries which result in reduced flows in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and associated wetlands. The proposed dike to bisect the marshlands on the boundary line between Iran and Iraq creates a critical transboundary issue. This dike would impede flow of water into the marshland on the Iraqi side, one of the remaining pristine marshes in Iraq, a wetland unique to the world. These impacts to the marshlands cause security issues, unemployment, loss of biodiversity, economic hardship, and loss of wildlife habitat. In this paper I illustrate the cause and effect relationship of policy and practice of the countries and resulting impacts. The marshlands of Iraq are at the bottom end, as a result provide a benchmark of the environmental universe and serve as a spring board for debate and potential for positive change to Middle Eastern stability and security. The causes for the demise of the marshlands provide historical information of current effects. Through a comparative risk assessment of 8 recommendations developed under the UNEP[1] Early Warning and Assessment Technical Report (2001); The Mesopotamian Marshlands: results are identified and positive change for the marshlands of Iraq and the affected riparian countries is possible for those recommendations that will minimize the major and/or catastrophic consequences of impacts to the water resources, the public, ecology, and biodiversity of the Mesopotamian Marshlands and the affected riparian countries are selected through comparative risk assessment.

The Marshlands of Mesopotamia are caught in the middle of regional water scarcity. The marshlands in Iraq are at the bottom of the flow of water from Syria, Turkey, and Iran before it drains into the Arabian (Persian) Gulf. As a result the marshlands reflect the impacts of dams, population growth, and over extraction of water from neighboring countries which result in reduced flows in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and associated wetlands. The proposed dike to bisect the marshlands on the boundary line between Iran and Iraq creates a critical transboundary issue. This dike would impede flow of water into the marshland on the Iraqi side, one of the remaining pristine marshes in Iraq, a wetland unique to the world. These impacts to the marshlands cause security issues, unemployment, loss of biodiversity, economic hardship, and loss of wildlife habitat. In this paper I illustrate the cause and effect relationship of policy and practice of the countries and resulting impacts. The marshlands of Iraq are at the bottom end, as a result provide a benchmark of the environmental universe and serve as a spring board for debate and potential for positive change to Middle Eastern stability and security. The causes for the demise of the marshlands provide historical information of current effects. Through a comparative risk assessment of 8 recommendations developed under the UNEP[1] Early Warning and Assessment Technical Report (2001); The Mesopotamian Marshlands: results are identified and positive change for the marshlands of Iraq and the affected riparian countries is possible for those recommendations that will minimize the major and/or catastrophic consequences of impacts to the water resources, the public, ecology, and biodiversity of the Mesopotamian Marshlands and the affected riparian countries are selected through comparative risk assessment.