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The Dead Sea basin plays a major role for regional economic development (industry, tourism and agriculture). This potential is threatened by the steady disappearance of the Dead Sea. Since around 1930 the water level of the Dead Sea has fallen by about 25 m, about half of this alone in the last 20 years. The Dead Sea is the terminal point of the Jordan River watershed. As such, it serves as a barometer for the health of the overall system. Its rapid decline reflects the present water management strategies of the riparian and upstream countries.

The Dead Sea basin plays a major role for regional economic development (industry, tourism and agriculture). This potential is threatened by the steady disappearance of the Dead Sea. Since around 1930 the water level of the Dead Sea has fallen by about 25 m, about half of this alone in the last 20 years. The Dead Sea is the terminal point of the Jordan River watershed. As such, it serves as a barometer for the health of the overall system. Its rapid decline reflects the present water management strategies of the riparian and upstream countries.

Elements pertaining to environmental security, whereby a sustainably managed environment provides for social, economic as well as environmental benefits are evident with regards the Dead Sea. The decline for example, undermines its potential as a tourist destination, despite the enormous investment in hotel and resort infrastructures in Israel and in Jordan. The decline also raises ethical issues about the exploitation of water resources by present generations at the expense of this natural heritage to future generations.

This paper provides a preliminary analysis of a European Union funded project whose aims are to synthesize and assess existing physical and socio-economic data and to assess options for a better future for the Dead Sea. It will identify the patterns of water supply and use in the region, and the factors that control these patterns. The underlying assumption is that solutions for a more sustainable development than today scenario will not come from simply providing “more water for more development”, but from a new land and water management system that is sensitive to social, cultural and ecological resources thereby providing security and stability across sectors and nations.

As a first step, the project team has established a system model that combines the physical and social dimensions of water use. Data, information and knowledge between the human dimension (economy, sociology etc.) and the physical dimension (hydrology, ecology, agriculture, water planning) are linked under changing scenarios. The model is an attempt to reflect the complexity inherent in the system through the mapping of human and physical connections. An understanding of these connections can lead to a more secure environment for both.

Risk levels calculated using accepted human health or ecological risk assessment paradigms are often compared to numerical acceptable or unacceptable risk levels found in statutes, administrative rules, guidelines or policies. In practice, the numerical results of systematic, rigorous, and transparent risk analyses are used as inputs into a risk management process that does not have the same performance attributes of the risk assessment process. The risk management process often transforms the definition of acceptable or unacceptable risk in a non-transparent manner resulting in inefficient multi-criteria decision-making and public confusion as to what constitutes acceptable or unacceptable risk. This paper discusses an approach to make such decision-making explicit and suggests that an acceptable/unacceptable risk threshold might be considered for each class of infrastructure based on its critical nature. This paper initiates a policy level analysis and discussion of this issue by presenting arguments to support or refute the contention that critical infrastructure should be held to an explicit and less stringent acceptable/unacceptable risk standard. Strong arguments exist for both sides of the issue. It is the responsibility of risk managers to determine whether arguments for or against flexibility in establishing acceptable or unacceptable risk levels are sufficiently compelling for use in their jurisdiction.

Risk levels calculated using accepted human health or ecological risk assessment paradigms are often compared to numerical acceptable or unacceptable risk levels found in statutes, administrative rules, guidelines or policies. In practice, the numerical results of systematic, rigorous, and transparent risk analyses are used as inputs into a risk management process that does not have the same performance attributes of the risk assessment process. The risk management process often transforms the definition of acceptable or unacceptable risk in a non-transparent manner resulting in inefficient multi-criteria decision-making and public confusion as to what constitutes acceptable or unacceptable risk. This paper discusses an approach to make such decision-making explicit and suggests that an acceptable/unacceptable risk threshold might be considered for each class of infrastructure based on its critical nature. This paper initiates a policy level analysis and discussion of this issue by presenting arguments to support or refute the contention that critical infrastructure should be held to an explicit and less stringent acceptable/unacceptable risk standard. Strong arguments exist for both sides of the issue. It is the responsibility of risk managers to determine whether arguments for or against flexibility in establishing acceptable or unacceptable risk levels are sufficiently compelling for use in their jurisdiction.

The Environmental Security discussion group focused on the issue of water scarcity in the Mediterranean region, namely Israel, Palestine, Jordan, and Egypt, for a medium time-scale (10-20 years in the future). No consensus was reached as to whether climate change would have a significant impact, and what kind of impact. On the other hand, the inevitable increase of population pressure in the region is a source of considerable concern and should be enough impetus to begin adaptation strategies as soon as possible. The group's discussion addressed potential hazards and solutions for a medium time scale. There was consensus that, considering the security situation between Israel and its neighbors, the environmental problems of the region, which are serious and getting more so with time, can be addressed adequately only with the active participation of the international community. Increasing water use efficiency would be the most cost-efficient short term solution. Longer term solution includes large scale endeavors such as the increase desalination capacity. The members of this discussion group were representing 5 countries [Spain, Israel, US, Turkey, Belarus] from the public, private, and academic sectors.

The Environmental Security discussion group focused on the issue of water scarcity in the Mediterranean region, namely Israel, Palestine, Jordan, and Egypt, for a medium time-scale (10–20 years in the future). No consensus was reached as to whether climate change would have a significant impact, and what kind of impact. On the other hand, the inevitable increase of population pressure in the region is a source of considerable concern and should be enough impetus to begin adaptation strategies as soon as possible. The group’s discussion addressed potential hazards and solutions for a medium time scale. There was consensus that, considering the security situation between Israel and its neighbors, the environmental problems of the region, which are serious and getting more so with time, can be addressed adequately only with the active participation of the international community. Increasing water use efficiency would be the most cost-efficient short term solution. Longer term solution includes large scale endeavors such as the increase desalination capacity. The members of this discussion group were representing countries [Spain, Israel, US, Turkey, Belarus] from the public, private, and academic sectors.

The built environment (BE) affects ecosystems, ecosystem services and human health and well being. While, formally, the BE ranges from the smallest hut to the largest city, this chapter focuses upon the health effects of urban areas, which increasingly are the preferred human habitat. Urban areas have many attractive and beneficial influences to human well‐being. But at the same time, many effects of urban areas are harmful to well‐being, and many are not even recognized as such. Most publications about these topics have described the effects of the BE separately, on ecosystems on human health. The interconnectivity between these two effects relative to BE is rarely studied. This paper focuses on the mutual influence and interactions between three related aspects of the BE which can impact ecosystems human health: transportation, land use, and life style. It also explores some of the links between the BE, human health, and human security.

The built environment (BE) affects ecosystems, ecosystem services and human health and well being. While, formally, the BE ranges from the smallest hut to the largest city, this chapter focuses upon the health effects of urban areas, which increasingly are the preferred human habitat. Urban areas have many attractive and beneficial influences to human well-being. But at the same time, many effects of urban areas are harmful to well-being, and many are not even recognized as such. Most publications about these topics have described the effects of the BE separately, on ecosystems on human health. The interconnectivity between these two effects relative to BE is rarely studied. This paper focuses on the mutual influence and interactions between three related aspects of the BE which can impact ecosystems human health: transportation, land use, and life style. It also explores some of the links between the BE, human health, and human security.

This study evaluates the usefulness of structured non-linear regression models for the prediction of annual ambient fine particulate matter (FPM) concentration distributions. The method developed in this study provides a way to examine and display results for the yearly distribution of FPM when testing emissions control strategy performance. The models are developed using three daily gaseous pollutant concentrations (oxides of nitrogen (NO), sulfur dioxide (SO), and total hydrocarbons (THC)) and four meteorological measures (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) as explanatory variables. The models are fitted using data from the North Long Beach, Rubidoux (Riverside) and Azusa stations in Los Angeles County and Riverside County, CA for a recent 7-year period (1988–1994). The statistical model is tested for the year 1995 based on precursor concentrations and meteorological conditions in that year, and found to provide reasonably good prediction, though the annual average FPM concentration is overestimated by an average of 26 percent across the three stations. The response surfaces of PM concentrations with respect to all input variables are plotted, and the predicted changes in daily, annual average and annual 98th percentile base-year (1995) PM concentrations are predicted for different precursor reductions. The predicted effects of precursor reductions are further explored by comparing predicted and observed FPM concentrations for 1999 (though the absence of THC data for this year restricts this comparison to plausible ranges). The method developed in this study provides a way to examine and display results for the predicted concentration distributions when evaluating emission control strategy performance. The potential usefulness and limitations of a statistical model of this type are discussed.

In this chapter, we introduce a generic environmental modeling system that has been developed using an object-oriented approach. The Questions and Decisions™ (QnD™) model system combines both number-based calculations and value-style judgments. It can integrate ideas and data that are well-studied with concepts that are estimated from expert knowledge and experience. A specific QnD version is constructed through conversations with stake-holders and decision-makers. The wishes of the stakeholders are created within the model using configurable objects designed to be quickly made and quickly altered through subsequent learning and iteration.

QnD-simulated ecosystems are represented by combinations of component, process, and data objects that are constructed through the use of XML-based input files. This design allows different ecosystem/habitat/organism/chemical combinations to be efficiently formed, simulated, and documented. The flexibility of the model is demonstrated through its non-spatial application to a terrestrial ecosystem (Kruger National Park, South Africa) and a spatial risk assessment application within an idealized US river system (as a demonstration for the US Army Corps of Engineers). Unlike traditional decision support systems that direct outputs at discipline-specific management, the model has been created as a game to stimulate discussions and analysis among managers, scientists, and stakeholders who are working increasingly closely within an adaptive management context.