Catálogo de publicaciones - libros

Environmental security involves the geo-referenced assessment of health risks. A straightforward estimation of relative risks can be based on aggregated health data, which are often routinely collected in administrative districts and, therefore, cheap and easily available. Disease maps based on raw data can be misleading, however. The value of the maps can be improved by applying a statistical model that, firstly, accounts for the spatial autocorrelation and, secondly, admits the inclusion of exposure data (e.g. from monitoring networks). A third important task is the inclusion of socioeconomic and further individual-specific confounders.

The paper presents a hierarchical model that facilitates the mapping of the relative risk and the adjustment for socio-demographic and individual-specific variables (ecological adjustment). While the basis of the model is the conditional autoregressive (CAR) approach, we extend this approach by including a model for the individuals at risk. Bayesian inference is used for the risk estimation.

As an example, the statistical model is applied to the analysis of the spatial epidemiology of in Leipzig, Germany. So far, the epidemiology of this infection is not fully understood. The [C]urea breath test was offered to all school beginners in the urban area of Leipzig to determine the colonization prevalence and potential transmission pathways of the bacterium. A total of 2888 school-starters participated in the test and their parents completed detailed, self-administered questionnaires. Calculating the spatial distribution of among school-starters in the urban area of Leipzig, we present maps of district-wise relative risks and demonstrate the usefulness of the ecological adjustment.

One of the cornerstones of effective risk management and risk governance is effective risk assessment. Risk assessment methodologies today are rigorous and subject to a process of continuous improvement around the world. But they remain more concerned with the hard quantitative aspects of risks and do not devote much attention to the ‘soft’ human related aspects of culture and behavior. Apart from an attempt to model human errors, little else is included in our Risk assessment methodologies that reflect human risk culture and behavior. For e.g. should safety assessments of two technologically similar nuclear plants in two different geographical regions be adjusted only for the geographical conditions? It is quite logical that cultural differences of the respective population have also to be built in-in order to make the safety assessments more meaningful. This requires two things: One, a conceptual framework for risk culture and two, a mathematical framework for risk culture so that it is rendered conducive to risk modeling. The main focus of this paper is to suggest such a conceptual framework for risk culture. This framework is broadly evolved using three spheres of existence that have significant influence on the risk culture of humans—they are physical, psychological and ideal spheres. Family, Society and Geography predominantly influence the physical sphere of existence while Genetics, Upbringing and Innate abilities of individuals predominantly affect the psychological sphere. Religion, Education, and History, are the key influencing factors in the Ideal sphere. Subsequently, a mathematical perspective of risk culture is also briefly discussed.

The Environmental Security discussion group focused on the issue of water scarcity in the Mediterranean region, namely Israel, Palestine, Jordan, and Egypt, for a medium time-scale (10-20 years in the future). No consensus was reached as to whether climate change would have a significant impact, and what kind of impact. On the other hand, the inevitable increase of population pressure in the region is a source of considerable concern and should be enough impetus to begin adaptation strategies as soon as possible. The group's discussion addressed potential hazards and solutions for a medium time scale. There was consensus that, considering the security situation between Israel and its neighbors, the environmental problems of the region, which are serious and getting more so with time, can be addressed adequately only with the active participation of the international community. Increasing water use efficiency would be the most cost-efficient short term solution. Longer term solution includes large scale endeavors such as the increase desalination capacity. The members of this discussion group were representing 5 countries [Spain, Israel, US, Turkey, Belarus] from the public, private, and academic sectors.

This project investigates the utility of Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) as a tool for testing stakeholder responses to and improving expert assessment of innovative contaminated sediments technologies. Within the broader context of environmental decision-making theory, this case study focuses on a planned dredging project in Dover, New Hampshire where sediments containing PAHs and heavy metals will be removed from 2.7 miles of the Cocheco River (a navigable estuary). Faced with limited alternatives for dredged material disposal, local officials decided to place the contaminated materials in a sealed and lined disposal cell in a riparian area. However, the decision process employed (process of elimination) may have been severely taxed by innovative technological alternatives. To assess the feasibility of innovative technologies in this case, a group of stakeholders with a vested interest in the materials management decision were queried about the basic criteria they would apply to assessing decision alternatives, experts at the Center for Contaminated Sediments Research (CCSR) at the University of New Hampshire provided performance estimates related to those criteria, and an MCDA outranking study identified those stakeholder groups likely be in conflict or willing to reach consensus. Of the three innovative technologies tested, one was found to be unsuitable for this site while two others were likely to have support from different stakeholder groups. Those groups with strongly held views were modeled with the greatest confidence while groups with less strongly expressed preferences may be satisfied by more than one alternative and have a greater willingness to compromise.

Energy use in the transportation sector is primarily for passenger travel and freight movements. We shall restrict the present discussion to that part of public passenger transportation in either case of light and high duty vehicles. The focus is to bring about an evolution toward a sustainable public transport system including oil savings, improved energy efficiency and security, and reduced GHG emissions. The baseline of the present case study stemmed, in 2002, from a request of the Syrian Ministry of Transport aiming to introduce the use of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Liquefied Propane Gas (LPG) in public transport vehicles in order to get in the environmental dimension and better air quality in urban areas, within the general framework of reconciling socio-economic development with environmental protection.

Treated wastewater in Israel is the unlimited and a reasonable alternative for water supply to agriculture as the high-quality fresh water supply is gradually transferred to urban uses. Still, the domestic and industrial effluents carry pollutants including micro and macro organic and inorganic matter which potentially pose hazards to health, the environment, crops and soils, and may deteriorate aquifer quality. Nevertheless, for irrigation in Israel, using treated wastewater is the best means to facilitate agricultural production under conditions of water scarcity, since it uses a water resource that is available in large quantities and that already requires treatment, in order to prevent environmental damage. Salinity level is higher in effluents than in influents, while regular treatment processes do not get rid of salinity, unless combining relatively expensive desalination processes.

In this paper the focus is on salinity/chlorides as representing groundwater pollution. Hydrological model is used to predict the flow of chlorides through the unsaturated zone of the subsoil and into the groundwater below. We assumed that there is a threshold value for chloride concentration in the water supply for domestic consumption, and considered that when the concentration of chlorides in the supplied water reaches this threshold, desalination of groundwater should be initiated.

When irrigation is with treated wastewater, desalination processes are initiated earlier than under conditions of irrigation without effluent, and this increases the water supply costs. The damage to groundwater by effluent irrigation is assessed in terms of increased costs that arise from processes including water pumping and transporting, wastewater treatment and earlier initiation of desalinization. We compared several scenarios regarding salinity threshold levels and irrigation combinations with and without wastewater. This was applied to a specific case study in the Coastal aquifer of Israel composed of 8 hydraulic cells. The resulting salinity levels decrease with stricter restrictions and increase with wastewater irrigation. Water supply costs increase with stricter restrictions while with wastewater irrigation, desalination costs increase but total costs decrease.

Environmental and socio-economic risks are strongly linked to water scarcity, especially in semi arid regions like the Middle East. In many of these countries, Water Demand management (WDM) is the cheapest available ‘source’ of water. This paper will discuss a potential strategy to combat associated risks resulting from water scarcities, a condition which might accompany the Middle East socio-economic growth for many years to come.

That strategy is defined as “Water Demand Management”, “Water Conservation”, or the “Increase of Water Use Efficiency”. These 3 definitions mark a major paradigm shift from the conventional supply management of water. To conserve water successfully costs and risks for demand-side management must be considered. Effective management produces additional quantities of water for the immediate needs of the society by creating virtual quantities of water through conservation strategies or by increasing agricultural and industrial production per unit of water.

The experience of Israel in Water Demand Management (WDM) is presented as a potential and powerful instrument to enhance socio-economic prosperity and growth with limited water quantities. Israel has achieved significant positive as well as negative results. This paper will deal with Israel’s Water Resources Management strategy as a case study of adequate water demand and supply management in a highly water scarce conditions. It will try to introduce the concept, possibly emerging out of the Israel case study, that the largest and cheapest un-tapped water resource in the world, may be improved “Water Demand Management”.

The aim of this paper is to develop a multi-criteria tool for optimal allocation of water resources in the Jordan River Basin between riparian countries. The model addresses multiple interests of each country in the region in accordance with international laws and allocates water amounts so as to mitigate the environmental risks for all the countries.

A North Atlantic Treaty Organization Advanced Research Workshop (NATO-ARW), “Radiation Safety Problems in the Caspian Region”, was held in Baku, Azerbaijan in September 11–14, 2003. The objectives of this workshop were the exchange of information in the field of radiation safety and radioecology. Fifty-eight participants from twelve countries investigated hazards to regional populations from ionizing radiation. A major topic was the discussion of the investigations carried out in the Caspian Region. The main source of radioactivity in the Caspian Sea is due to global fallout, subsequent river run-off from catchments areas and the long-term oil-gas extraction.

Energy use in the transportation sector is primarily for passenger travel and freight movements. We shall restrict the present discussion to that part of public passenger transportation in either case of light and high duty vehicles. The focus is to bring about an evolution toward a sustainable public transport system including oil savings, improved energy efficiency and security, and reduced GHG emissions. The baseline of the present case study stemmed, in 2002, from a request of the Syrian Ministry of Transport aiming to introduce the use of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Liquefied Propane Gas (LPG) in public transport vehicles in order to get in the environmental dimension and better air quality in urban areas, within the general framework of reconciling socio-economic development with environmental protection.