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In this chapter we examine an agent-based model of social care costs in the context of an ageing population. The model brings together statistical demographic modelling with a spatial agent-based model including a rudimentary economic model. Agents undergo the core demographic processes of fertility, mortality, and migration, and as they age they may develop varying levels of social care need. Building on the example presented in the previous chapter, this model increases the complexity of agent behaviours to allow for a more nuanced examination of the drivers of care demand and supply amongst an ageing populace. The results demonstrate that alongside the expected outcomes of social care cost rising as the population ages, the age of retirement has an unexpected impact on cost due to the size of the care burden being shouldered by healthy spouses of ill agents.

This chapter will summarise the insights gained from our analysis so far, incorporating the examples and case studies presented in Part III. We will examine the advances derived from these models, and their impact on the field of demography and its approach to modelling and simulation. Having taken stock of the state of model-based demography, we will discuss how this methodological paradigm might influence efforts to establish simulation as a powerful tool for the broader social science community.