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Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Asia accounted for approximately 38 % of global emissions in 2005. Considering the rapid economic growth expected in the coming decades, emissions from Asia in 2050 are projected to double the 2005 levels if efforts are not made toward achieving low-carbon societies (LCSs). The reduction of emissions in Asia is imperative for the transition by 2050 to an LCS worldwide that has halved GHG emissions. The LCS transition by Asian countries will not be an easy task. In order to accomplish this transition, it is vital that stakeholders including central and local governments, private sector enterprises, NGOs and NPOs, citizens, and the global community tackle it with a focused and common vision of the society they wish to achieve, while cooperating with one another and being aware of the roles they need to play. In addition, careful attentions should be placed on the diversity of the Asian countries when it comes to the implementation of countermeasures. Depending on the country or region in Asia, the level of development, amount and type of resources, climate conditions, culture, and other factors differ, and the actions that are effective may vary accordingly.

In order to analyze the feasibility, in this study two future scenarios, namely, advanced society scenario and conventional society scenario, are developed. In addition, “Ten Actions toward Low Carbon Asia,” a guideline to plan and implement the strategies for an LCS in Asia, was developed. The ten actions are the following:

The contributions of the ten actions have been quantified by a global computable general equilibrium model. The model outputs showed that GHG emissions in Asia can be reduced by 20 gigatons of CO equivalent (GtCO), i.e., 68 % of the emissions in the reference scenario, in 2050, if all the actions are applied appropriately.

In practice, on the other hand, it should be bear in mind that we need the smart strategies to meet the LCS pathways in each country depending on each development stages. For that purpose, knowledge sharing becomes important. It should be noted that the actions presented in this report are not the only pathway to achieve an LCS. The important point is to use this report to encourage discussions among stakeholders and to develop specific actions for each country or region in Asia.

The purpose of low-carbon development in China is for both national sustainable development and global climate change action. For the global climate change target ‘to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above preindustrial levels’, China needs to peak in CO2 emissions by 2025 and then secure deep cuts in CO2 emissions. Previous studies on emission scenarios show that it is possible for China to peak in CO2 emissions by 2030 if strong policies are adopted, albeit at relatively high cost. In other words, peaking in CO2 emissions before 2025 represents a huge challenge for China. A modelling study conducted by IPAC on the 2-degree target stated that it is also still possible for China to peak in CO2 emissions before 2025 as long as several preconditions are satisfied, including optimised economic development, further energy efficiency improvements, enhanced renewable energy and nuclear development and CCS.

Energy-intensive industries consume more than 50 % of energy in China and account for more than 70 % of newly increased power output. Scenario analysis shows that many energy-intensive product outputs will reach a peak before 2020, with a much slower growth rate compared with that in the 11th Five-Year Plan, and therefore will significantly change the pathway for energy demand and CO2 emissions.

Energy efficiency should be further promoted. In the 11th Five-Year Plan, energy efficiency was improved significantly, and by reviewing what happened in this Plan compared to energy conservation efforts over the last several decades, as well as effort in other countries, it can be seen that China is now making unprecedented efforts in energy conservation. The target is to make China’s energy efficiency in major sectors one of the best by 2030.

China is a now a leading country in new energy and renewable energy. Based on planning taking place in China, by 2020, renewable energy will provide 15 % of the total primary energy, which includes renewable energy excluded from the national energy statistics.

Another key factor is the increase in natural gas use in China. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, natural gas use will be 350 BCM by 2030 and 450 BCM by 2050; and in the 2-degree scenario, it will be around 480 BCM by 2030 and 590 BCM by 2050. Together with renewable energy, this leaves coal use in China by 2050 at below 1 billion tonnes.

For CO2 emissions, carbon capture and storage could further contribute to CO2 emission reduction. China has to use CCS if large amounts of coal are used for the next several decades, but even with the enhanced low-carbon scenario, coal use will be around 1.8 billion tonnes by 2050.

Technological progress is a key assumption for a low-carbon future for China. The cost learning curve for wind and solar and many other technologies is much stronger than the model used. Such progress greatly reduces costs in wind power and solar power within 2 years.

India has made voluntary commitment for reducing the emission intensity of GDP in the year 2020 by 20–25 % below that in the year 2005. The Indian approach is based on delineating and implementing cost-effective mitigation actions which can contribute to national sustainable development goals while remaining aligned to the UNFCCC’s expressed objective of keeping the average global surface temperature increase to below 2 °C over the preindustrial average. This chapter assesses three emission scenarios for India, spanning the period 2010–2050. The analysis is carried out using a bottom-up energy system model ANSWER-MARKAL, which is embedded within a soft-linked integrated model system (SLIMS).

The central themes of the three scenario storylines and assumptions are as follows: first, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario that assumes the socioeconomic development to happen along the conventional path that includes implementation of current and announced policies and their continuation dynamically into the future; second, a conventional low carbon scenario (CLCS) which assumes imposition, over the BAU scenario, of CO emission price trajectory that is equivalent to achieving the global 2 °C target; and third, a sustainable scenario that assumes a number of sustainability-oriented policies and measures which are aimed to deliver national sustainable development goals and which in turn also deliver climate mitigation, resilience, and adaptation as co-benefits. The sustainable low carbon scenario (SLCS) also delivers same cumulative emissions from India, over the period 2010–2050, as the CLCS scenario using carbon price as well as a mix of sustainability-oriented policies and measures.

The scenario analysis provides important information and insights for crafting future policies and actions that constitute an optimal roadmap of actions in India which can maximize net total benefits of carbon emissions mitigation and national sustainable development. A key contribution of the paper is the estimation of the net social value of carbon in India which is an important input for provisioning carbon finance for projects and programs as an integral part of financing NAMAs. The analysis in the paper will be useful for policymakers seeking to identify the CO mitigation roadmap which can constitute an optimal mix of INDCs for India.

Toward the achievement of the 2 °C target, Japan has set several GHG mitigation targets after ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. In 2008, in order to discuss the GHG mitigation target in 2020 at COP15 held in Copenhagen, the committee on the mid- and long-term target in Japan was organized at the Cabinet Secretariat. At that discussion, the proposed six options were quantified, and finally, 15 % reduction in 2020 compared with 2005 level was selected as a target.

Because of the change of government, the new mitigation target in 2020, 25 % reduction compared to 1990, was announced at the United Nations Climate Change Summit in 2009. Then, the road maps to achieve this 25 % reduction target were quantified at the Central Environment Council. But just after they completed the road maps to achieve the target, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident happened on March 11, 2011. Due to the nuclear power accident, the GHG mitigation road map and the future energy mix should be reconsidered. In 2012, the Energy and Environment Council forecasted that the GHG emissions in 2020 would be 5–9 % reduction compared to the 1990 level in the case of the prudent economic growth case.

After the change of government again, at the COP19 of UNFCCC in Warszawa in 2013, the new GHG mitigation target in 2020 was announced to be 3.8 % reduction compared to the 2005 level under the assumption of the no nuclear power supply. And in 2015, the mitigation target in 2030 was proposed to 1.042 GtCO2, that is, 26.0 % reduction compared to the 2013 level.

On the other hand, in the 4th Environmental Basic Plan endorsed by the Cabinet in 2012, the 80 % reduction of the GHG emissions was written clearly. In this paper, in order to assess the feasibility of this 2050 target, we utilized the AIM/Enduse to disaggregate Japan into 10 regions. The treated technologies include renewable energy technologies, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and energy-saving technologies. The study shows that it is feasible to achieve 80 % emission reduction in Japan even without nuclear power. The impact of nuclear phaseout as compared to the illustrative scenario is relatively small in the long term because of the small share of nuclear energy in 2050 in any case. Achieving long-term emission reduction target proves to be still feasible with substantial increase of renewable energy, particularly solar PV and wind power. The share of renewable energy in electricity supply reaches approximately 85 % in 2050, and variable renewable energies account for about 63 % in electricity generation in 2050, hence imposing a further challenge for integration into the electricity system.

The feature of mitigation target in Japan is mainly based on the bottom-up approach. That is to say, the process stressed the feasibility of the target. On the other hand, the top-down decision is also requested for the ambitious reduction target. Toward the achievement of 2 °C target, taking actions with the long-term perspective becomes more important.

Vietnam is not in the category of mandatory reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. However, when implementing the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Vietnam has many opportunities to access financial resources, technology and capacity building from developed countries to develop in a sustainable manner toward a green economy with low carbon and contribute to efforts to reduce global GHG emissions. Vietnam should prioritize the sectors for GHG reduction while ensuring the objectives of economic growth, employment, and economic development.

The GHG emissions in the energy and agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) sectors are two of the greatest GHG emissions. Policies to reduce GHG emissions also have negative and unintended effects. Therefore analysis and evaluation of the externalities of policies and measures to reduce GHG emissions are essential. The negative externalities are considered as indirect costs of GHG emission reduction measures, therefore they are important when considering the priority of GHG emission reduction.

International experience of accessing low-carbon development programs from low-carbon development research is a valuable reference for Vietnam. The Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM model) to project GHG emission scenarios helps to identify priority sectors that have high potential in reducing GHG and less effects on the development targets. Accordingly, for developing countries like Vietnam, when the budget is not abundant and also to serve multiple objectives of other urgent development, GHG emission reductions in selected priority sectors and actionable measures need less investment and other negative impacts on socio-economic development targets.

Research has contributed to the development of GHG emission reduction policies in Vietnam. It is considered as an important basis for construction, adjustment, and additional amendment of the legal system, mechanisms and policies to promote GHG emission reduction activities in industry and other sectors.

This section presents lessons learnt from Thailand in climate policy design. Thailand has filled the gap between modelling analyses and climate policy development in its Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA). Thailand’s mitigation pledge under NAMA framework was successfully designed and communicated to UNFCCC in COP20. The integrated assessment modelling analysis plays an important role in the development of Thailand NAMA. Consensus building was derived from several discussions among stakeholders of NAMA implementation. Criteria for selection of greenhouse gas countermeasures were based on cost optimization by using a module of the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model called ‘AIM/Enduse’, abatement costs, co-benefits and feasibility of implementation. In addition, economic feasibility of countermeasures in NAMA actions was also assessed. Then, NAMA implementation has been prepared based on assumptions concerning limitations of resources, capital requirement, timing and appropriateness for Thailand.

Since 2012 Thailand’s mitigation pledge to UNFCCC has been prepared on the basis of domestic appropriate measures. Co-benefits of NAMAs are also assessed, and they reveal positive aspects of GHG mitigation under NAMA framework. Results found that Thailand has high potential of GHG emission reduction by both domestically supported NAMAs and internationally supported NAMAs about 23–73 million tonnes CO per year in 2020 or approximately accounted for 7–20 % in 2020 of the total GHG emissions. The NAMA actions include measures in (1) renewable electricity, (2) energy efficiency, (3) biofuels in transportation and (4) environmental sustainable transport system. These GHG countermeasures are in line with the national policy and plans of ministries of energy and transport in order to avoid the conflict between climate policy and policies of the related ministries. Results of cost optimization, co-benefits, economics and appropriateness are also necessary for communication among policymakers, administrators, academic researchers and the public on consensus building.

Finally, to ensure the quantified GHG reduction in 2020 and the transparency of Thailand’s NAMA implementation, the measurement reporting and verification (MRV) process is required. The MRV process of these NAMAs needs cooperation among related ministries. These lessons learnt from Thailand, when modified as needed, can be a ‘good practice’ of climate policy design.

This paper outlines the lessons learnt through the multidisciplinary ‘Science-to-Action’ approach to formulating, mainstreaming and implementing the (LCSBP-IM2025). Iskandar Malaysia (IM) is a rapidly developing urban region in southern Peninsular Malaysia that was institutionalised in 2006 with a view to spurring Malaysia’s economic growth up to 2025. In pursuing rapid economic growth to become a developed, high-income nation by 2020, Malaysia is conscious of its global responsibility in environmental protection and global climate change mitigation, hence the country’s commitment to reducing its carbon emission intensity of GDP by up to 40 % by 2020 based on the 2005 level. Being a premier economic region in Malaysia, IM seeks to develop a low carbon society (LCS) and lead the way to cutting its carbon emission intensity by up to 58 % by 2025 based on the 2005 level through the implementation of the LCSBP-IM2025.

The LCSBP-IM2025 is the outcome of an internationally funded joint research under the SATREPS programme that brings together Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Kyoto University, Japan’s National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Okayama University and the Iskandar Regional Development Authority (IRDA), in a unique ‘academia-policymaker’ partnership, towards crafting an LCS pathway to guide and sustainably manage the projected rapid development in IM up to 2025. To that end, a multidisciplinary research team that comprises the above research institutions and IRDA, led by UTM, has been set up. A methodology has been developed to formulate IM’s future LCS scenarios, propose LCS actions to achieve the LCS scenarios, quantify the GHG emission reduction potential of the proposed LCS actions and continuously engage local stakeholders in a series of focus group discussions (FGDs).

The project has been a great success from its official commencement in July 2011, which saw the LCSBP-IM2025 being launched at UNFCCC’s COP 18 in Doha in November 2012 and officially endorsed by the Malaysian Prime Minister in December the same year. In November 2013, the was launched, outlining ten priority projects selected from the LCSBP-IM2025’s 281 programmes for implementation in IM in 2013–2015; the projects are now at various stages of implementation, yielding real impacts on IM’s progression towards its LCS goal.

The project offers valuable lessons especially in advancing on LCS into and, importantly, into (hence, Science to Action). These include the importance of having strong highest-level government support, aligning LCS actions to higher-level development priorities, taking policymakers on-board the research team, continuously actively engaging local communities and stakeholders through FGDs and overcoming science-policy and disciplinary gaps that emerged. What is clearly evidenced by the LCSBP-IM2025’s success is that developing countries, with good synergy between highly committed local research institutions and policymakers, subject to adequate international funding and technological assistance from developed nations, are capable of crafting and putting in place implementable LCS policies that eventually contribute to mitigating global climate change through real cuts in GHG emissions while still achieving a desired level of economic growth.

India is the world’s fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Transport contributes 13 % of India’s GHG emissions (MoEF. India: green house gas emissions 2007, Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA), Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF). Government of India, New Delhi. Accessed 13 Sept 2013, 2010). Driven by rising population, income, and urbanization, under a business-as-usual scenario, India’s energy demand from transport is projected to increase sixfold in 2050 from current levels. This has vital impact on key national sustainable development indicators like energy security and air pollution. In response, several national and subnational policies and measures were initiated to ameliorate the adverse impacts of transport decisions on sustainability. These include national policies and programs for fuel efficiency, low-carbon technologies, investments in public transport infrastructure, and climate change mitigation. These aside, several bottom-up interventions that are initiated locally are showing promise.

This chapter offers an overview of transport sector in India and presents selected best practice case studies that identify good practices. Evidently, the challenge is to replicate and scale up these practices to gain sizable CO mitigation together with co-benefits vis-à-vis various national sustainable development goals. The assessments show that successful implementation of national policies at the subnational level requires widely agreed goals and targets and support from the national government. The support can be in the form of capacity building, technology, or finance. In the overall, the chapter argues for (1) integrating transport policies with local, national, and global objectives, (2) a comprehensive assessment of the impacts (co-benefits and risks) of policies and project from the planning to the post-implementation stage, and (3) cooperation and knowledge sharing among cities and regions facilitated by the national government for cross-learning and transfer of best practices. The lessons from these studies provide important learnings for designing policies and projects elsewhere including other developing countries.

Loss of forest cover in large scale in tropical region will have impact on climate significantly. This will change air pressure distribution and shift the typical global circulation patterns and change rainfall distribution. Its contribution to the increase of greenhouse gas emission will also enhance global warming and may increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Deforestation in the three tropical regions, Amazon, Central Africa, and Southeast Asia, still continues. Without significant change in forest protection efforts, the loss of forests in these three regions by 2050 will reach about 29, 98, and 44 %, respectively.

Indonesia has the largest tropical forest in SEA; the contribution of emission from land use change and forest (LUCF) reached 60 % of the total national emission, much higher than energy sector. During the period 1990–2013, the total loss of natural forest reached about 19.7 million hectares or about 0.822 million ha per year. Without significant change in forest protection program, within the period 2010–2050, Indonesia may lose 43.4 million ha of forest or equivalent to deforestation rate of 1.08 million ha per year. Potential of reducing emission from REDD+ activities is quite big. By increasing expenses of the government by 1 % annually on top of the external investment for technology change, without necessity of direct forest protection (e.g., increasing agriculture productivity reduces pressure on forests), the deforestation rate could reduce to about 0.337 million ha per year.

The issuance of innovative financing and incentive policies for improving land and forest management may further increase the potential of reducing emission from REDD+ activities. Some of the policies include the use of debt-for-nature swap (DNS) scheme for accelerating the development of forest management units in open access area, incentive for permit holders for accelerating the development of timber plantation on degraded land, and increase community access to fund for green investment. The incentive system for the permit holders is for handling land tenurial issues or conflicts. The incentive could be in the form of reducing or exemption of administration/retribution fees for certain period of time depending on the level of conflicts. Policy allowing for transferring the funds to a financing system is relatively easy to be accessed by the community such as blending financing, a financing system that synergizes all financial sources such as CSR funding; government funding such as state budget (APBN); and local government budget (APBD) funds, banking, and international funding. This system can help leverage private funding and supports regional development by supporting community activities in urban agriculture and agroforestry including building human resource capacity through assistance and training activities.

Most major development paths of Asian countries are moving toward green growth. Under the constraints of the energy crisis and climate change impact, future Asian growth, while appearing to be the most significant in comparison with other regions, needs a good knowledge-based pathway to light up and pave the road to a low-carbon society.

Capacity development is the basic need and a urgent issue to be explored in Asia. It is one of the effective tools for Asia to leapfrog to a low-carbon society with the concern of unlocked carbon intensity development.

Development needs to be done on several levels from communities to the subnational and national levels. To leapfrog from the current situation, capacities need to be built at many levels through various mechanisms of networking, research forums, initiatives, training, etc., in order to bridge, transfer and transform the results from research to policy and to implementation. Policy makers with good understanding, as the head of the bullet train, will lead society in the right direction, while scientists and researchers are the engines to back up and accelerate this movement. Finally, practitioners in communities play key roles as the fuel, enhancing the movement toward green growth through their activities. It is, therefore, essential to have these three components for a compatible basis of knowledge and comprehension through capacity development.

Asian countries are different in nature but rich in culture and resources. Low-carbon activities are various and depend on internal factors and situations. There are many good practices and philosophies that can be shared among the countries. The experience of learning from each other facilitates accomplishments and reduce risks in implementation. Collaborative activities in capacity development help Asian countries move toward green growth in their own ways with their own uniqueness while seeing the same goal in the future together.