Catálogo de publicaciones - libros

We present a model of trade between two different regions, North and South. The South specializes in a natural resource intensive good which is sold to and used as an input in the North. Assuming an environmental R&D sector in the North, which increases the efficiency of the traded good, the North-South trade and the natural resource management are modeled in a dynamic way. The existence of a sustained growth in the North, which allows a permanent growth of consumption in the South without exhausting natural resource, is proved. Transitional dynamics is also studied.

In this paper we report on the coordinated development of a regional module within a world computable general equilibrium model (CGEM) and of a bottom up energy-technology-environment model (ETEM) describing long term economic and technology choices for Switzerland to mitigate GHG emissions in accordance with Kyoto and post-Kyoto possible targets. We discuss different possible approaches for coupling the two types of models and we detail a scenario built from a combined model where the residential sector is described by the bottom-up model and the rest of the economy by the CGEM.

Emergency situations, both man-made and natural, can vary substantially, however, they do share the characteristic of sudden onset and the necessity for a coherent and effective emergency management. In the event of a nuclear or radiological accident in Europe, the real-time on-line decision support system RODOS provides support from the early phase through to the medium and long-term phases.

This paper describes the role of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in ensuring the transparency of decision processes within off-site emergency management. A moderated decision making workshop based on a hypothetical accident scenario focusing on the evaluation of long-term countermeasures using the RODOS system and MCDA methods is presented.

Energy-economy models are especially useful to policy makers if they indicate the effect of energy and environment policies on the technology choices of businesses and consumers — what is called endogenous modeling of technological change. The hybrid model described in this chapter is technologically explicit, like a bottom-up engineering model, but also behaviorally realistic, like a top-down macro-economic model. With this combination, it can simulate packages of policies that include economy-wide emissions charges and technology-specific regulations and subsidies. Recent improvement to the model involves estimation of its behavioral parameters from discrete choice surveys of business and consumer technology preferences.

In this article, we present the new multiregional global MARKAL-TIMES model and on several recent applications to global energy-environment issues. The development of the model was motivated by the need to analyze international energy and environmental issues such as climate change, using a detailed, technology rich modeling framework. We then present three different types of application. First, the model is applied to conduct the cost-effectiveness analysis of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission abatement, whereby constraints on CO emissions are added to the base case formulation. The model then computes the cost-efficient response of the energy system to these emission targets. Second, we address the issue of “who pays”’ for emission reductions (whereas the cost-effictiveness analysis addressed the “who acts” issue). More precisely, we use the model to devise and evaluate certain allocation rules for attributing initial emission rights to regions in a cap-and-trade system. Third, we use World MARKAL in a cost-benefit mode, i.e. we augment the model with damage costs resulting from climate change, and run the integrated model without any pre-set targets on emissions or concentration. We then analyse cooperative and non-cooperative decisions by regions when confronted to the threat of damages. This last application makes systematic use of game theoretic concepts.

When developing a market of tradable CO-permits for achieving emission reductions, many badly known aspects must be accounted for. There are the landmarks to be imposed to the industry, the realistic schedules for their achievement, the potentials of different reduction technologies, the annual budgets that can be spent and last but not least the marginal pollution-abatement costs. In this methodological paper a simulation technique is developed to provide insight to public policy-makers into this complex matter. We propose to use fuzzy reasoning techniques to reconcile the diverging opinions of experts and to take into account the many uncertainties on marginal abatement costs.

MERGE is a model for estimating the regional and global effects of greenhouse gas reductions. It quantifies alternative ways of thinking about climate change. The model contains submodels governing:

The paper presents the application of Mixed Integer Multiple Objective Linear Programming (MIMOLP) in the power generation expansion problem of Crete for the period 2005–2020. The developed 3-period MIMOLP model includes two conflicting objectives (cost and CO emissions minimization) continuous and integer variables and a number of operational and logical constraints. The model is solved with the Multi-Criteria Branch and Bound (MCBB) method that provides all the efficient solutions for MIMOLP problems. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to handle the uncertainty related to the future electricity demand in the island. Interesting conclusions are drawn from the trade offs between the two objective functions. They reveal that contrary to a fixed perception, the integration of the CO reduction objective can lead to solutions that are not only environmentally benign but also economically attractive in view of the potential exchange of emission permits in the framework of the emission trading mechanism.

Existing fuel taxes play a major role in determining the welfare effects of exempting the transportation sector from measures to control greenhouse gases. To study this phenomenon we modify the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to disaggregate the household transportation sector. This improvement requires an extension of the GTAP data set that underlies the model. The revised and extended facility is then used to compare economic costs of cap-and-trade systems differentiated by sector, focusing on two regions: the USA where the fuel taxes are low, and Europe where the fuel taxes are high. We find that the interplay between carbon policies and pre-existing taxes leads to different results in these regions: in the USA exemption of transport from such a system would increase the welfare cost of achieving a national emissions target, while in Europe such exemptions will correct pre-existing distortions and reduce the cost.

Many jurisdictions face the problem of having to reduce GHG emissions and new electricity capacity requirements. Ontario has the additional commitment of phasing out its coal power plants. Time of use (TOU) pricing is seldom considered as an option in the analysis of these problems, even if its impacts on capacity requirements and emissions can be substantial. We analyze to what extent TOU pricing can reduce capacity requirements and we evaluate its impacts on total energy use and CO, SO and NO emissions under different technologies. We also introduce “transfer of demand” between peak and off-peak periods to account for cross-price elasticity between time periods.