Catálogo de publicaciones - libros

For complex systems of any nature an actual problem is a credible and timely foresight, forecast, and prevention of critical, extreme, and other undesirable situations and influences that may result in an abnormal functioning mode, accident, or catastrophe or considerably affect the serviceability, survivability, safety, efficiency, and other properties of such objects. The possibility of such situations and results of such influences, conditions, and factors are determined by random and chaotic processes that are characterized as risks by mechanisms of their influence. Risks are generated by various internal and external factors, and, therefore, the mechanisms of their influence on a complex engineering system are multifactor.

After a review of developments in the quantitative study of science, particularly since the early 1970s, I focus on two current main lines of ‘measuring science’ based on bibliometric analysis. With the developments in the Leiden group as an example of daily practice, the measurement of research performance and, particularly, the importance of indicator standardisation are discussed, including aspects such as interdisciplinary relations, collaboration, ‘knowledge users’. Several important problems are addressed: language bias; timeliness; comparability of different research systems; statistical issues; and the ‘theory-invariance’ of indicators. Next, an introduction to the mapping of scientific fields is presented. Here basic concepts and issues of practical application of these ‘science maps’ are addressed. This contribution is concluded with general observations on current and near-future developments, including network-based approaches, necessary ‘next steps’ are formulated, and an answer is given to the question ‘Can science be measured?’

In this chapter we review and discuss the potential and limitations of econometric methods for the evaluation of productivity of scientific and technological (S&T) systems. We examine and compare the main approaches that have been applied in the literature: the production function and the production frontier approach. Both approaches present advantages and disadvantages. In the first part of the chapter we carry out a selective review of the two fields. In the second part we focus on the last developments of the efficiency analysis literature, with particular attention to the nonparametric approach. An illustration of the potential of robust nonparametric techniques is offered using data from the Italian National Research Council (CNR). The chapter concludes by discussing the potential of these approaches for the analysis of S&T systems beyond the existing applications.

The purpose of this chapter is to present a survey of the development of Science and Technology (S&T) indicators and their use in national policy making as well as to provide evidence of the vulnerability of S&T indicators to manipulation. A brief history of the development of S&T indicators begins with the United States followed by their worldwide diffusion, with particular emphasis on Europe. The current status of S&T indicators and newer developments towards composite indicators, benchmarking, and scoreboarding is discussed. To investigate the robustness of innovation scoreboards empirically a sensitivity analysis of one selected case is presented. It is shown that composite scores and rank positions can vary considerably, depending on the selection process. It seems not to be too difficult to argue for a ‘country friendly’ selection and corresponding weighting of indicators. Thus the use of scoreboards opens space for manipulation in the policymaking system. Further research is needed on alternative methods of calculation to prevent their misuse and abuse.

The chapter outlines the basics of journal gatekeeping and stresses the gatekeeping indicators initiated by us in the 1980s for the evaluation of the research performance of nations in all fields of science. The results have proven that these indicators correlate well with science indicators built on journal paper productivity and citations of nations and represent implicitly a component of quality somewhat associated with citation impact of journal papers. That is why gatekeeping indicators are useful and more simple to build as indicators based on publication productivity and citation impact.

This paper suggests that an understanding of the changing science-technology-innovation régime can provide a new role for necessarily imperfect S&T indicators. It is argued that it is precisely to the extent which they are questionable that S&T indicators can fulfil their role as mediator and S&T arena decision making instruments. Such a role of S&T indicators is highlighted by initiatives of benchmarking for public policy design and improvement, as shown by recent reports from the European commission and OECD. Finally, it is argued that it has implications for the work and responsibilities of the S&T indicators specialists.

This chapter examines the evolution of technological opportunities historically. The disciplinary approach is evolutionary economics combined with patent statistics. By analysing the complexities behind changing technological opportunities, technological paradigms governing the evolutionary process of change are traced empirically. Evidence shows how the path-dependent evolution of technological opportunities is characterised by ‘creative, incremental, accumulation’, as it is revealed how new technological systems with new opportunities build upon (complement and extend) the knowledge embodied in old ones, rather than substitute them. Evidence also reveals how the evolution of technological opportunities has become increasingly interrelated, wider-ranging and complex, in which trajectories previously following isolated channels of development are brought together. Finally, evidence shows how typical technological trajectories of broad technological groups explain technological evolution better than the conventional aggregate measures of such broad technological fields.

Scientists in developing countries have access to only a tiny fraction of the information they need, and their own contribution to science is hardly noticed by others. It is important that these countries strengthen their scientific research and that their scientists become fully integrated members of the worldwide network of science. But, unfortunately, the transformations effected in the conduct of science with the advent of the new information and communication technologies (such as high bandwidth Internet) and the rising cost of subscriptions to journals and secondary services are widening the gulf between the industrialized and developing countries. Ironically, the steep rise in the cost of S&T information has helped developing countries in a way, as it forced scientists and librarians in the advanced countries to think of measures to overcome the ‘serials crisis’ and many of these measures can benefit developing country scientists. This paper looks at doing research in the developing world and how we can harness the new technologies to achieve information equity.

The goal of the paper is to give an overview on the state of the art of data mining and text mining approaches which are useful for bibliometrics and patent databases. The paper explains the basics of data mining in a non-technical manner. Basic approaches from statistics and machine learning are introduced in order to clarify the groundwork of data mining methods. Text mining is introduced as a special case of data mining. Data and text mining applications especially useful for bibliometrics and querying of patent databases are reviewed and three case studies are described.

The paper presents methodological approaches to statistical patent analyses. The references to timescales, countries of origin, and patent offices largely determine the outcome of such analyses; in particular, for country comparisons. For instance, considerable differences appear if results are compared based on priority, application, or grant years. For interpreting the patent figures at specific offices it proves important to consider the geostrategic position of the office. Advanced approaches such as the triad concept lead to more balanced results, but their assessment has to include a consideration of international patent flows. For quality indicators it has to be taken into account that patents are always two-dimensional and have technical and economic aspects. In principle early quality indicators primarily cover the technological content. A further issue is the definition of samples aiming at a large number of suitable documents which is sometimes contradictory to the target of completeness.