Catálogo de publicaciones - libros

The emergence of the aerospace industry and space exploration; the development and wide introduction of computers, information technologies, and the Internet; the fast development and wide application of aircraft; nuclear research and the development of nuclear engineering; the very fast development of advanced technologies and equipment in various industries and services including health care, pharmacology, genetic engineering; and a number of other outstanding achievements in science and technology have entered the history of civilization as a triumphal result of the coordinated activities of science, education, and industry. These achievements are the result of the efforts of many scientists and researchers working in various fields during different historic periods. Some sciences originated in the ancient world; others appeared only in the 20th century. System analysis belongs to the second category along with other new directions of science appearing in the 20th century, such as cybernetics, the general theory of systems, system engineering, the theory of decision making, and the theory of optimization.

System analysis belongs to the category of scientific phenomena that cause numerous debates on a great number of problems. Nevertheless, till now there have been no generally recognized solutions to some of them. Still, you can find fundamental variances in the interpretation of many basic and practically important notions and definitions, such as subject of investigation/analysis, system, systemness, complexity, system approach, and system problem in particular. Thus, we consider it is necessary to analyze well-known interpretations of the concepts mentioned above and offer and justify our version of their definitions.

Disclosure of uncertainties is an important problem for the class of system analysis formalizable problems. First, we will notice that uncertainty is a typical property of system analysis practical problems. It is connected with the diversity of goals, properties, and system analysis object features. Applied problems without uncertainties are rather the exception than the rule. An adequate problem statement usually has various types of uncertainties, which reflect the natural state of a researcher. His knowledge is always rather incomplete and inaccurate. It directly follows from the GЦdel theorem about incompleteness [103] and the evolution of human cognition. If everything were known with certainty, completely, and exactly about the processes, factors, and evolution of the Universe, then civilization would stop developing.

In the previous chapter problems of disclosing various types of uncertainties were investigated: the uncertainty of goals and interests in practical activities of individual participants and information uncertainty during the interaction or counteraction of several participants not incorporated into certain groups. At the same time, in practice, complex organizational structures and forms of interaction and counteraction are realized. For example, in the world economy there exist different international associations, unions, and other forms of interconnections and interactions of manufacturers and consumers of various services, raw materials, and goods. In a market economy, simultaneous influences of uncertainty factors, risks, competition, interaction, or counteraction factors are typical for such participants. Therefore, research and development of methods for solving system problems of active interaction and counteraction in such associations and coalitions are of significant practical interest.

The qualitative characteristics of information that is put to use are of great importance in formalizing and solving real problems of system analysis.

Let us consider the main problems that compose the general problem of the system analysis of complex multilevel hierarchical systems (CMHSs).

For complex systems of any nature an actual problem is a credible and timely foresight, forecast, and prevention of critical, extreme, and other undesirable situations and influences that may result in an abnormal functioning mode, accident, or catastrophe or considerably affect the serviceability, survivability, safety, efficiency, and other properties of such objects. The possibility of such situations and results of such influences, conditions, and factors are determined by random and chaotic processes that are characterized as risks by mechanisms of their influence. Risks are generated by various internal and external factors, and, therefore, the mechanisms of their influence on a complex engineering system are multifactor.

This chapter describes the system problems of coordinated control of serviceability and the safety of complex hierarchical systems (CHSs) in real functioning conditions characterized by uncertainty and risks. On both the structural-functional analysis level and the control level there is a need to find a rational solution under conditions of conceptual uncertainty regarding the object’s shape, structure, and properties. In addition, it is necessary to take into account other factors [18, 83, 162, 175, 194, 198, 199, 201, 202, 207]. In particular, in practice there is no any a priori information that guarantees a reliable evaluation of constructional and technological abilities and predefined requirements to CHS main properties, indicators, and conditions of usage. The conditions of CHS usage are determined by various factors depending on the CHS’s purpose. However, nowadays for most CHS types, the risks connected with accidents and catastrophes have the utmost importance [33, 180].

Foresight, and above all technology foresight, has become the most important methodology of innovation and socioeconomic development of modern society, not only at the national or regional level, but also at the level of separate industry branches or large organizations and companies. This methodology to a large extent has realized the ideas of Glushkov [37] related to the construction of information networks and technologies for different areas of human activity, especially for the knowledge-based economy.