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Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals
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Sven Teske; Thomas Pregger
Brief introduction to the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and its main goals, followed by the project background, motivation and objectives. Presentation of the specific research questions for the energy and climate scenario development. Short overview of published 100% renewable energy scenarios and the main differences between those scenarios and the newly developed 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios presented in the book. Overview about the basic assumptions in regard to technology preferences in future energy pathways. Discussion of the advantages and limitations of scenarios in the energy and climate debate.
State of Research
Sven Teske; Malte Meinshausen; Kate Dooley
This chapter sets the context for the climate and energy scenario development. The first part summarizes the scientific status quo of climate change research and explains how the global climate has changed over recent decades and the likely outcomes if we continue with business as usual and fail to drastically reduce GHG emissions.
The second part reviews the development of the global energy markets during the past decade. Trends in the power-, transport- and heating sector in regard to technologies and investments are provided for the year of writing (2018). The developments put the energy scenarios presented in the following chapters into a global context.
Sven Teske; Thomas Pregger; Sonja Simon; Tobias Naegler; Johannes Pagenkopf; Bent van den Adel; Malte Meinshausen; Kate Dooley; C. Briggs; E. Dominish; D. Giurco; Nick Florin; Tom Morris; Kriti Nagrath
A detailed overview of the methodologies used to develop the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenario presented in this book. Starting with the overall modelling approach, the interaction of seven different models is explained which are used to calculate and developed detailed scenarios for greenhouse gas emission and energy pathways to stay within a 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C global warming limit. The following models are presented:
The methodologies of an employment analysis model, and a metal resource assessment tool are outlined. These models have been used to examine the analysis of the energy scenario results.
Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG
Malte Meinshausen; Kate Dooley
Presentation of non-energy emission pathways in line with the new UNFCCC Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP) scenario characteristics and the evaluation of the multi-gas pathways against various temperature thresholds and carbon budgets (1.5 °C and 2.0 °C) over time, and additionally against a 1.5 °C carbon budget in 2100, followed by a discussion of the results in the context of the most recent scientific literature in this field. Presentation of the non-energy GHG mitigation scenarios calculated to complement the energy-related CO emissions derived in Chap. .
Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways
Thomas Pregger; Sonja Simon; Tobias Naegler; Sven Teske
The aim of this chapter is to make the scenario calculations fully transparent and comprehensible to the scientific community. It provides the scenario narratives for the reference case (5.0 °C) as well as for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C on a global and regional basis. Cost projections for all fossil fuels and renewable energy technologies until 2050 are provided. Explanations are given for all relevant base year data for the modelling and the main input parameters such as GDP, population, renewable energy potentials and technology parameters.
Transport Transition Concepts
Johannes Pagenkopf; Bent van den Adel; Özcan Deniz; Stephan Schmid
Detailed background for all transport scenarios and development pathways including all key parameters, and story-lines for the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C transport scenario pathways. Mode specific efficiency improvement over time for road-, rail- and aviation transport technologies. Explanations of all vehicle technologies are included in the scenarios, along with the rationale for their selection. Description of key technology parameters for all relevant transport modes such as energy demand per passenger, and per freight tonne. Detailed regional breakdown for developments in regard to transport energy demand for ten world regions and all transport modes are provided.
Renewable Energy Resource Assessment
Sven Teske; Kriti Nagrath; Tom Morris; Kate Dooley
Literature overview of published global and regional renewable energy potential estimates. This section provides definitions for different types of RE potentials and introduces a new category, the economic renewable energy potential in space constrained environments. The potential for utility scale solar and onshore wind in square kilometre and maximum possible installed capacity (in GW) are provided for 75 different regions. The results set the upper limits for the deployment of solar- and wind technologies for the development of the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C energy pathways.
Energy Scenario Results
Sven Teske; Thomas Pregger; Tobias Naegler; Sonja Simon; Johannes Pagenkopf; Bent van den Adel; Özcan Deniz
Results for the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios for ten world regions in regard to energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions, final-, primary-, transport- and heating demand and the deployment of various supply technologies to meet the demand. Furthermore, the electricity demand and generation scenarios are provided. The key results of a power sector analysis which simulates further electricity supply with high shares of solar- and wind power in one hour steps is provided. The ten world regions are divided into eight sub-regions and the expected development of loads, capacity-factors for various power plant types and storage demands are provided. This chapter contains more than 100 figures and tables.
Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry
This section provides historical production data for coal, oil and gas between 1980 and 2015. The 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenario lead to specific phase-out pathways for each of the fossil fuel types. Current regional production volumes are compared with future demands. The results provide the input for the employment analysis in the following chapter for the fossil fuel sector. This section discusses the need to shift the current political debate about coal, oil and gas which is focused on security of supply and price security towards an open debate about an orderly withdrawal from coal, oil and gas extraction industries.
Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios
Elsa Dominish; Chris Briggs; Sven Teske; Franziska Mey
This section provides the input data for two different employment development calculation methods: The quantitative analysis, which looks into the overall number of jobs in renewable and fossil fuel industries and the occupational analysis which looks into specific job categories required for the solar and wind sector as well as the oil, gas, and coal industry. Results are given with various figures and tables.
Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios
Damien Giurco; Elsa Dominish; Nick Florin; Takuma Watari; Benjamin McLellan
This chapter explores the magnitude of the changes in patterns of material use that will be associated with the increasing deployment of renewable energy and discusses the implications for sustainable development. In particular, this chapter focuses on the increased use of lithium and cobalt, metals which are used extensively in battery technologies, and silver used in solar cells. Consistent with the strong growth in renewable energy and electrification of the transport system required in a 1.5°C scenario, the material requirements also rise dramatically, particularly for cobalt and lithium. Scenarios developed for this study show that increasing recycling rates and material efficiency can significantly reduce primary demand for metals.
Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change
This section provides a summary of the implications of the developed 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios for global mean climate change. Specifically, we consider atmospheric CO concentrations, radiative forcing, global-mean surface air temperatures and sea level rise.
Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations
Sven Teske; Thomas Pregger; Johannes Pagenkopf; Bent van den Adel; Özcan Deniz; Malte Meinshausen; Damien Giurco
The following section focuses on the main findings in all parts of the research, with priority given to high-level lessons, to avoid the repetition of previous chapters. The key findings as well as the research limitations and further research requirements are given for following topics:
Renewable energy potential mapping, Transport scenario and long-term energy scenario development, power sector analysis, employment and mineral resource implications for the 2.0C and 1.5C scenarios and non-energy GHG scenarios,
Policy recommendations for the energy sector with a focus on policies for buildings sector decarbonisation, for the transport and industry sector as well as a recommended political framework for power markets are provided.
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