Catálogo de publicaciones - revistas

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>In airborne data or model outputs, clouds are often defined using information about Liquid Water Content (LWC). Unfortunately LWC is not enough to retrieve information about the dynamical boundary of the cloud, that is, volume of turbulent air around the cloud. In this work, we propose an algorithmic approach to this problem based on a method used in time series analysis of dynamical systems, namely Recurrence Plot (RP) and Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA). We construct RPs using time series of turbulence kinetic energy, vertical velocity and temperature fluctuations as variables important for cloud dynamics. Then, by studying time series of <jats:italic>laminarity</jats:italic> (<jats:italic>LAM</jats:italic>), a variable which is calculated using RPs, we distinguish between turbulent and non‐turbulent segments along a horizontal flight leg. By selecting a single threshold of this quantity, we are able to reduce the number of subjective variables and their thresholds used in the definition of the dynamical cloud boundary.</jats:p>

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Despite the significant socioeconomic implications in the link between atmospheric waviness and extreme weather events, future atmospheric waviness trends remain elusive due to uncertainties arising from diverse definitions and insufficient dynamical formalism in existing metrics. This study employs a local wave activity (LWA) metric, whose prognostic equation links wave activity changes to forcing mechanisms, to assess wintertime Northern Hemisphere waviness in ERA5 and HighResMIP data sets. The models generally exhibit high fidelity in reproducing observed waviness, while biases stem primarily from biases in the LWA source, low‐level meridional heat flux, which tend to improve with higher resolutions. Future projections exhibit reduction in LWA, primarily due to suppressed LWA generation, which is mitigated by higher‐resolution models. We found that both biases and reduction of the LWA source are closely associated with sensible heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere, highlighting the potential impacts of resolving ocean currents.</jats:p>

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Phytoplankton underpin ocean net primary production (NPP) and Southern Ocean phytoplankton display different ecological‐biogeochemical traits, compared to temperate species. Climate models currently forecast consistent across‐model NPP increases due to climate change, yet neglect specific aspects of the Southern Ocean ecological‐biogeochemical system. We conducted experiments to evaluate how key regional traits, including multiple limiting nutrients, unique photophysiology and differential resource acquisition, drive changes in the projected response of resource stress, NPP and export production under a high emissions scenario. Although Southern Ocean iron limitation is widespread, it declines in the future and is replaced by growing manganese limitation, as concentrations cannot support increasing growth rates. Distinct phytoplankton traits either amplify or dampen climate‐driven changes, depending on whether they are those typical of Antarctic or temperate phytoplankton, respectively. Overall, future Southern Ocean NPP trends may be more uncertain than currently assumed and future efforts should focus on accounting for regional ecological‐biogeochemical differences.</jats:p>

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Magnetotail earthward‐propagating fast plasma flows provide important pathways for magnetosphere‐ionosphere coupling. This study reexamines a flow‐related red‐line diffuse‐like aurora event previously reported by Liang et al. (2011, <jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2010ja015867">https://doi.org/10.1029/2010ja015867</jats:ext-link>), utilizing THEMIS and ground‐based auroral observations from Poker Flat. We find that time domain structures (TDSs) within the flow bursts efficiently drive electron precipitation below a few keV, aligning with predominantly red‐line auroral intensifications in this non‐substorm event. The diffuse‐like auroras sometimes coexisted with or potentially evolved from discrete forms. We forward model red‐line diffuse auroras due to TDS‐driven precipitation, employing the time‐dependent TREx‐ATM auroral transport code. The good correlation (∼0.77) between our modeled and observed red line emissions underscores that TDSs are a primary driver of the red‐line diffuse‐like auroras, though whistler‐mode wave contributions are needed to fully explain the most intense red‐line emissions.</jats:p>

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>We present the first high resolution global MHD with coupled inner magnetosphere simulation results of an observed theta aurora event. We use the Space Weather Modeling Framework in the Geospace configuration, which produces accurate field aligned current closure in the ionosphere that is integral to theta aurora formation. At the location of the observed theta aurora, the simulation produces a narrow channel of Joule heating along both open and closed field lines, and between a pair of oppositely directed field‐aligned current sheets in the ionosphere. We demonstrate that this Joule heating pattern that we identify as theta aurora maps to a reconnection region at the magnetotail flanks as well as in the distant magnetotail. The theta aurora maps to a cross‐tail current disruption and field‐aligned current source region in a highly twisted magnetotail.</jats:p>

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Fluid flow through fractured media is typically governed by the distribution of fracture apertures, which are in turn governed by stress. Consequently, understanding subsurface stress is critical for understanding and predicting subsurface fluid flow. Although laboratory‐scale studies have established a sensitive relationship between effective stress and bulk electrical conductivity in crystalline rock, that relationship has not been extensively leveraged to monitor stress evolution at the field scale using electrical or electromagnetic geophysical monitoring approaches. In this paper we demonstrate the use time‐lapse 3‐dimensional (4D) electrical resistivity tomography to image perturbations in the stress field generated by pressurized borehole packers deployed during shear‐stimulation attempts in a 1.25 km deep metamorphic crystalline rock formation.</jats:p>

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>During summer and fall 2023, Louisiana experienced a historic local drought while dry conditions elsewhere in the central US withheld vital runoff from the Mississippi River, leading to below‐normal discharge into the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, by late October 2023, Louisiana was gripped by two super‐imposed water crises: a severe local drought and saltwater contamination in the Mississippi River channel. This study frames the development of the water emergency through the lens of flash drought using the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI). The EDDI shows south Louisiana experience a flash drought during June 2023, while the Mississippi River basin was subsequently characterized by large expanses of high‐percentile EDDI in August‐September 2023 shortly before the saltwater intrusion episode along the lower Mississippi River. Over the last 15 years, MRB‐wide EDDI percentile has oscillated between years‐long elevated and depressed states, accounting for 23.7% of the monthly discharge anomaly near New Orleans.</jats:p>

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>In 2023, Antarctic sea‐ice extent (SIE) reached record lows, with winter SIE falling to 2.5Mkm<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> below the satellite era average. With this multi‐model study, we investigate the occurrence of anomalies of this magnitude in latest‐generation global climate models. When these anomalies occur, SIE takes decades to recover: this indicates that SIE may transition to a new, lower, state over the next few decades. Under internal variability alone, models are extremely unlikely to simulate these anomalies, with return period &gt;1000 years for most models. The only models with return period &lt;1000 years for these anomalies have likely unrealistically large interannual variability. Based on extreme value theory, the return period is reduced from 2650 years under internal variability to 580 years under a strong climate change forcing scenario.</jats:p>

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Extensive regions in the permafrost zone are projected to become climatically unsuitable to sustain permafrost peatlands over the next century, suggesting transformations in these landscapes that can leave large amounts of permafrost carbon vulnerable to post‐thaw decomposition. We present 3 years of eddy covariance measurements of CH<jats:sub>4</jats:sub> and CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> fluxes from the degrading permafrost peatland Iškoras in Northern Norway, which we disaggregate into separate fluxes of palsa, pond, and fen areas using information provided by the dynamic flux footprint in a novel ensemble‐based Bayesian deep neural network framework. The 3‐year mean CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub>‐equivalent flux is estimated to be 106 gCO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> m<jats:sup>−2</jats:sup> yr<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> for palsas, 1,780 gCO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> m<jats:sup>−2</jats:sup> yr<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> for ponds, and −31 gCO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> m<jats:sup>−2</jats:sup> yr<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> for fens, indicating that possible palsa degradation to thermokarst ponds would strengthen the local greenhouse gas forcing by a factor of about 17, while transformation into fens would slightly reduce the current local greenhouse gas forcing.</jats:p>

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Global warming has intensified the intensity of compound drought‐hot extremes (CDHEs), posing more severe impacts on human societies and ecosystems than individual extremes. The vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems under CDHEs, along with its key influencing factors, remains poorly understood. Based on multiple remote sensing data, we construct a Vine Copula model to appraise vegetation vulnerability under CDHEs, and attribute it to climatic and biotic factors for five different vegetation types. High vulnerability is detected in central and southern regions of North America, eastern and southern regions of South America, Southern Africa, northern and western Europe, and northern and eastern Australia. The drier the climate, the higher will be the vulnerability. Furthermore, biodiversity and biomass are key biotic factors influencing the vulnerability of various vegetation types, such that ecosystems with richer biodiversity and higher biomass have lower vulnerability to CDHEs. The findings deepen understanding of terrestrial ecosystem response to CDHEs.</jats:p>