Catálogo de publicaciones - libros

A novel Genetic Programming (GP) paradigm called Co-evolutionary Rule-Chaining Genetic Programming (CRGP) has been proposed to learn the relationships among attributes represented by a set of classification rules for multi-class problems. It employs backward chaining inference to carry out classification based on the acquired acyclic rule set. Its main advantages are: 1) it can handle more than one class at a time; 2) it avoids cyclic result; 3) unlike Bayesian Network (BN), the CRGP can handle input attributes with continuous values directly; and 4) with the flexibility of GP, CRGP can learn complex relationship. We have demonstrated its better performance on one synthetic and one real-life medical data sets.

In this paper, we propose a self Adaptive Migration Model for Genetic Algorithms, where parameters of population size, the number of points of crossover and mutation rate for each population are fixed adaptively. Further, the migration of individuals between populations is decided dynamically. This paper gives a mathematical schema analysis of the method stating and showing that the algorithm exploits previously discovered knowledge for a more focused and concentrated search of heuristically high yielding regions while simultaneously performing a highly explorative search on the other regions of the search space. The effective performance of the algorithm is then shown using standard testbed functions, when compared with Island model GA(IGA) and Simple GA(SGA).

This paper presents a new multicriteria sorting procedure in financial classification problems, based on the methodological framework of PROMETHEE method. The proposed procedure, called as PROMSORT, is applied to the business failure risk problem and compared to PROMETHEE TRI and ELECTRE TRI. The proposed methodology also identifies the differences in performances across risk groups, and assists in monitoring the firms’ financial performances. The results showed that the proposed procedure can be considered as an effective alternative to existing methods in financial classification problems.

Volatility modelling of asset returns is an important aspect for many financial applications, e.g., option pricing and risk management. GARCH models are usually used to model the volatility processes of financial time series. However, multivariate GARCH modelling of volatilities is still a challenge due to the complexity of parameters estimation. To solve this problem, we suggest using Independent Component Analysis (ICA) for transforming the multivariate time series into statistically independent time series. Then, we propose the ICA-GARCH model which is computationally efficient to estimate the volatilities. The experimental results show that this method is more effective to model multivariate time series than existing methods, e.g., PCA-GARCH.

This paper investigates the cross-market informational dependence between these assets under disparate interest rate conditions of the U.S and Australia. With conditional variance as a proxy for volatility, we use the BEKK – a matricular decomposition of the bivariate GARCH (1,1) model to examine the cross-market contemporaneous effect of information arrival. Applying the model to the stock and bond indices of both countries, we find evidence of volatility spillover, thereby supporting the notion of informational dependence between each market.

G11, G12

Foreign Exchange trading has emerged in recent times as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process will be very helpful. In this paper we try to create such a system using Machine learning approach to emulate trader behaviour on the Foreign Exchange market and to find the most profitable trading strategy.