Catálogo de publicaciones - libros

In this chapter, we apply the CGPE model to analyzing the performance of policy processes with respect to the production of efficient policy choices. Within the CGPE approach participation of stakeholder organizations is modeled in two ways. First, as classical lobbying influence and second as informational influence within a model of political belief formation. An empirical application of the CGPE model to CAADP reforms in Malawi delivered the following results: (i) inefficient agricultural policies mainly result from lack of adequate political knowledge, while biased political incentives play only a minor rule. (ii) Policy beliefs of political practitioners differ significantly from economic models. Hence, our analyses imply a cleavage between the world of economic modeling and the world of political practice. (iii) As Bayesian estimation combining objective knowledge of scientific models with the subjective wisdom of practitioners results in a compromise of both worlds, we conclude that adequate political knowledge does not yet exist in the scientific system or in political praxis and must be created in the political process. (iv) Therefore, the only effective political therapy corresponds to the application of adequate tools that facilitate interactive communication and policy learning among stakeholders and economic modelers.

As many sub-Saharan African countries have committed to the continent-wide goals of the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) of the Africa Union and New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), policymakers are challenged with designing and implementing national agricultutal strategies and policies that will allow them to achieve these goals. This chapter introduces the concept of a Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (SAKSS) as a framework by which evidence can be used to inform and strengthen the effectiveness of agricultural strategies in Africa, and in particular, CAADP. The framework describes a range of ‘strategic analysis’ options and the kind of tools and approaches needed to ensure effective ‘knowledge support systems’ for promoting evidenced-based dialogue and decisionmaking, including practical approaches on how to go about setting up such systems at country level.

The contributions of this book can be understood as a continuation of the ongoing evidenced-based debate on the role of agriculture and participatory policy processes in reducing poverty. In this context, the economic modelling approaches presented in this book provide new insights into the agricultural versus nonagricultural growth nexus. Besides growth-poverty linkages, these particularly include nutrition-growth-poverty linkages and policy-growth linkages to identify key sectors and key policies within an effective Pro-Poor-Growth-strategy. In contrast to existing approaches, the political process has been explicitly integrated into this quantitative analyses. Thus, the derived CGPE approach allows a more comprehensive growth-poverty analysis, including not only the impact of biased political incentives, but also the lack of adequate political knowledge and ownership, respectively, as a source of low political performance. Political knowledge is reflected by policy beliefs which in turn are formed by political agents through communication and observational learning processes organized in policy networks. Effective participatory policy processes are characterized by policy network structures implying stakeholder influence that reflects both, the size of the society groups represented and the specific political knowledge of the stakeholder organizations. Apart from stakeholders, voters also play an important role in determining effective participatory policy processes. Voter behavior, i.e. the importance of policy versus non-policy voting motives, significantly determines both, governmental incentives and lobbying influence. While non-policy voting implies policy failure due to government capture and low government accountability, policy voting limits government performance depending on the extent to which voters’ policy beliefs are biased. Future challenges correspond to three areas: (1) modelling complex policy-growth linkages via policy impact functions (2) designing effective communication between science and political practice that allow an effective policy learning and (3) modelling voter behavior, especially the formation of voter beliefs in a political mass communication processes.