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Loss and Damage from Climate Change

Reinhard Mechler ; Laurens M. Bouwer ; Thomas Schinko ; Swenja Surminski ; JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer (eds.)

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Palabras clave – provistas por la editorial

Climate Change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climate Change Management and Policy; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice; Risk Management

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Tipo de recurso:

libros

ISBN impreso

978-3-319-72025-8

ISBN electrónico

978-3-319-72026-5

Editor responsable

Springer Nature

País de edición

Reino Unido

Fecha de publicación

Información sobre derechos de publicación

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2019

Tabla de contenidos

Science for Loss and Damage. Findings and Propositions

Reinhard Mechler; Elisa Calliari; Laurens M. Bouwer; Thomas Schinko; Swenja Surminski; JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer; Jeroen Aerts; Wouter Botzen; Emily Boyd; Natalie Delia Deckard; Jan S. Fuglestvedt; Mikel González-Eguino; Marjolijn Haasnoot; John Handmer; Masroora Haque; Alison Heslin; Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler; Christian Huggel; Saleemul Huq; Rachel James; Richard G. Jones; Sirkku Juhola; Adriana Keating; Stefan Kienberger; Sönke Kreft; Onno Kuik; Mia Landauer; Finn Laurien; Judy Lawrence; Ana Lopez; Wei Liu; Piotr Magnuszewski; Anil Markandya; Benoit Mayer; Ian McCallum; Colin McQuistan; Lukas Meyer; Kian Mintz-Woo; Arianna Montero-Colbert; Jaroslav Mysiak; Johanna Nalau; Ilan Noy; Robert Oakes; Friederike E. L. Otto; Mousumi Pervin; Erin Roberts; Laura Schäfer; Paolo Scussolini; Olivia Serdeczny; Alex de Sherbinin; Florentina Simlinger; Asha Sitati; Saibeen Sultana; Hannah R. Young; Kees van der Geest; Marc van den Homberg; Ivo Wallimann-Helmer; Koko Warner; Zinta Zommers

The debate on “Loss and Damage” (L&D) has gained traction over the last few years. Supported by growing scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change amplifying frequency, intensity and duration of climate-related hazards as well as observed increases in climate-related impacts and risks in many regions, the “Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage” was established in 2013 and further supported through the Paris Agreement in 2015. Despite advances, the debate currently is broad, diffuse and somewhat confusing, while concepts, methods and tools, as well as directions for policy remain vague and often contested. This book, a joint effort of the Loss and Damage Network—a partnership effort by scientists and practitioners from around the globe—provides evidence-based insight into the L&D discourse by highlighting state-of-the-art research conducted across multiple disciplines, by showcasing applications in practice and by providing insight into policy contexts and salient policy options. This introductory chapter summarises key findings of the twenty-two book chapters in terms of five propositions. These propositions, each building on relevant findings linked to forward-looking suggestions for research, policy and practice, reflect the architecture of the book, whose sections proceed from setting the stage to critical issues, followed by a section on methods and tools, to chapters that provide geographic perspectives, and finally to a section that identifies potential policy options. The propositions comprise (1) Risk management can be an effective entry point for aligning perspectives and debates, if framed comprehensively, coupled with climate justice considerations and linked to established risk management and adaptation practice; (2) Attribution science is advancing rapidly and fundamental to informing actions to minimise, avert, and address losses and damages; (3) Climate change research, in addition to identifying physical/hard limits to adaptation, needs to more systematically examine soft limits to adaptation, for which we find some evidence across several geographies globally; (4) Climate risk insurance mechanisms can serve the prevention and cure aspects emphasised in the L&D debate but solidarity and accountability aspects need further attention, for which we find tentative indication in applications around the world; (5) Policy deliberations may need to overcome the perception that L&D constitutes a win-lose negotiation “game” by developing a more inclusive narrative that highlights collective ambition for tackling risks, mutual benefits and the role of transformation.

Part I - Setting the Stage: Key Concepts, Challenges and Insights | Pp. 3-37

The Ethical Challenges in the Context of Climate Loss and Damage

Ivo Wallimann-Helmer; Lukas Meyer; Kian Mintz-Woo; Thomas Schinko; Olivia Serdeczny

This chapter lays out what we take to be the main types of justice and ethical challenges concerning those adverse effects of climate change leading to climate-related Loss and Damage (L&D). We argue that it is essential to clearly differentiate between the challenges concerning mitigation and adaptation and those ethical issues exclusively relevant for L&D in order to address the ethical aspects pertaining to L&D in international climate policy. First, we show that depending on how mitigation and adaptation are distinguished from L&D, the primary focus of policy measures and their ethical implications will vary. Second, we distinguish between a justice framework and a justice scheme for delivering L&D measures. Third, in order to understand the differentiated remedial responsibilities concerning L&D, we categorise the measures and policy approaches available. Fourth, depending on the kind of L&D and which remedies are possible, we explain the difference between and responsibilities of different actors.

Part I - Setting the Stage: Key Concepts, Challenges and Insights | Pp. 39-62

Observed and Projected Impacts from Extreme Weather Events: Implications for Loss and Damage

Laurens M. Bouwer

This chapter presents current knowledge of observed and projected impacts from extreme weather events, based on recorded events and their losses, as well as studies that project future impacts from anthropogenic climate change. The attribution of past changes in such impacts focuses on the three key drivers: changes in extreme weather hazards that can be due to natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, changes in exposure and vulnerability, and risk reduction efforts. The chapter builds on previous assessments of attribution of extreme weather events, to drivers of changes in weather hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Most records of losses from extreme weather consist of information on monetary losses, while several other types of impacts are underrepresented, complicating the assessment of losses and damages. Studies into drivers of losses from extreme weather show that increasing exposure is the most important driver through increasing population and capital assets. Residual losses (after risk reduction and adaptation) from extreme weather have not yet been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. For the Loss and Damage debate, this implies that overall it will remain difficult to attribute this type of losses to greenhouse gas emissions. For the future, anthropogenic climate change is projected to become more important for driving future weather losses upward. However, drivers of exposure and especially changes in vulnerability will interplay. Exposure will continue to lead to risk increases. Vulnerability on the other hand may be further reduced through disaster risk reduction and adaptation. This would reduce additional losses and damages from extreme weather. Yet, at the country scale and particularly in developing countries, there is ample evidence of increasing risk, which calls for significant improvement in climate risk management efforts.

Part I - Setting the Stage: Key Concepts, Challenges and Insights | Pp. 63-82

The Risk and Policy Space for Loss and Damage: Integrating Notions of Distributive and Compensatory Justice with Comprehensive Climate Risk Management

Thomas Schinko; Reinhard Mechler; Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler

The Warsaw Loss and Damage Mechanism holds high appeal for complementing actions on climate change adaptation and mitigation, and for delivering needed support for tackling intolerable climate related-risks that will neither be addressed by mitigation nor by adaptation. Yet, negotiations under the UNFCCC are caught between demands for climate justice, understood as compensation, for increases in extreme and slow-onset event risk, and the reluctance of other parties to consider Loss and Damage outside of an adaptation framework. Working towards a jointly acceptable position we suggest an actionable way forward for the deliberations may be based on aligning comprehensive climate risk analytics with distributive and compensatory justice considerations. Our proposed framework involves in a short-medium term, needs-based perspective support for climate risk management beyond countries ability to absorb risk. In a medium-longer term, liability-based perspective we particularly suggest to consider liabilities attributable to anthropogenic climate change and associated impacts. We develop the framework based on principles of need and liability, and identify the policy space for Loss and Damage as composed of curative and transformative measures. Transformative measures, such as managed retreat, have already received attention in discussions on comprehensive climate risk management. Curative action is less clearly defined, and more contested. Among others, support for a climate displacement facility could qualify here. For both sets of measures, risk financing (such as ‘climate insurance’) emerges as an entry point for further policy action, as it holds potential for both risk management as well as compensation functions. To quantify the Loss and Damage space for specific countries, we suggest as one option to build on a risk layering approach that segments risk and risk interventions according to risk tolerance. An application to fiscal risks in Bangladesh and at the global scale provides an estimate of countries’ financial support needs for dealing with intolerable layers of flood risk. With many aspects of Loss and Damage being of immaterial nature, we finally suggest that our broad risk and justice approach in principle can also see application to issues such as migration and preservation of cultural heritage.

Part I - Setting the Stage: Key Concepts, Challenges and Insights | Pp. 83-110

Attribution: How Is It Relevant for Loss and Damage Policy and Practice?

Rachel A. James; Richard G. Jones; Emily Boyd; Hannah R. Young; Friederike E. L. Otto; Christian Huggel; Jan S. Fuglestvedt

Attribution has become a recurring issue in discussions about Loss and Damage (L&D). In this highly-politicised context, attribution is often associated with responsibility and blame; and linked to debates about liability and compensation. The aim of attribution , however, is not to establish responsibility, but to further scientific understanding of causal links between elements of the Earth System and society. This research into causality could inform the management of climate-related risks through improved understanding of drivers of relevant hazards, or, more widely, vulnerability and exposure; with potential benefits regardless of political positions on L&D. Experience shows that it is nevertheless difficult to have open discussions about the science in the policy sphere. This is not only a missed opportunity, but also problematic in that it could inhibit understanding of scientific results and uncertainties, potentially leading to policy planning which does not have sufficient scientific evidence to support it. In this chapter, we first explore this dilemma for science-policy dialogue, summarising several years of research into stakeholder perspectives of attribution in the context of L&D. We then aim to provide clarity about the scientific research available, through an overview of research which might contribute evidence about the causal connections between anthropogenic climate change and losses and damages, including climate science, but also other fields which examine other drivers of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Finally, we explore potential applications of attribution research, suggesting that an integrated and nuanced approach has potential to inform planning to avert, minimise and address losses and damages. The key messages are

Part II - Critical Issues Shaping the Discourse | Pp. 113-154

The Politics of (and Behind) the UNFCCC’s Loss and Damage Mechanism

Elisa Calliari; Swenja Surminski; Jaroslav Mysiak

Despite being one of the most controversial issues to be recently treated within climate negotiations, Loss and Damage (L&D) has attracted little attention among scholars of International Relations (IR). In this chapter we take the “structuralist paradox” in L&D negotiations as our starting point, considering how IR theories can help to explain the somewhat surprising capacity of weak parties to achieve results while negotiating with stronger parties. We adopt a multi-faceted notion of power, drawing from the neorealist, liberal and constructivist schools of thought, in order to explain how L&D milestones were reached. Our analysis shows that the IR discipline can greatly contribute to the debate, not only by enhancing understanding of the negotiation process and related outcomes but also by offering insights on how the issue could be fruitfully moved forward. In particular, we note the key importance that discursive power had in the attainment of L&D milestones: Framing L&D in ethical and legal terms appealed to standards relevant beyond the UNFCCC context, including basic moral norms linked to island states’ narratives of survival and the reference to international customary law. These broader standards are in principle recognised by both contending parties and this broader framing of L&D has helped to prove the need for action on L&D. However, we find that a change of narrative may be needed to avoid turning the issue into a win-lose negotiation game. Instead, a stronger emphasis on mutual gains through adaptation and action on L&D for both developed and developing countries is needed as well as clarity on the limits of these strategies. Examples of such mutual gains are more resilient global supply chains, reduction of climate-induced migration and enhanced security. As a result, acting on L&D would not feel as a unilateral concession developed countries make to vulnerable ones: it would rather be about elaborating patterns of collective action on an issue of common concern.

Part II - Critical Issues Shaping the Discourse | Pp. 155-178

Legal Responses to Climate Change Induced Loss and Damage

Florentina Simlinger; Benoit Mayer

Legal issues are central to ongoing debates on Loss and Damage associated with climate change impacts and risks (L&D). These debates shed light, in particular, on the remedial obligations of actors most responsible for causing climate change towards those most affected by its adverse impacts. The aim of this chapter is to take stock of the legal literature on the topic, to identify potential legal approaches to L&D, identify challenges and to explore possible directions for further research. It looks at the feasibility of private and administrative climate change litigation while providing examples from around the world. Subsequently, we explore how human rights issues have been applied in international law to address L&D. The discussion particularly addresses the question whether the no-harm rule can be applied to climate change and would in fact trigger legal responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, we examine relevant legal actions with relevance for L&D taken under the UNFCCC and the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage. The chapter concludes with a synopsis of the various legal responses to L&D highlighting their premises, specific challenges and proposed remedies.

Part II - Critical Issues Shaping the Discourse | Pp. 179-203

Non-economic Loss and Damage and the Warsaw International Mechanism

Olivia Serdeczny

Non-economic Loss and Damage (NELD) forms a distinct theme in the documents outlining both the initial 2-year workplan that concluded in 2017 and the future work areas as outlined in the next 5-year rolling workplan of the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage (WIM Excom). NELD refers to the climate-related losses of items both material and non-material that are not commonly traded in the market, but whose loss is still experienced as such by those affected. Examples of NELD include loss of cultural identity, sacred places, human health and lives. Within the context of the WIM the goal is to raise awareness of the kinds of NELD that occur and, for an expert group, to “develop inputs and recommendations to enhance data on and knowledge of reducing the risk of and addressing non-economic losses” (UNFCCC Secretariat ). Initial analysis shows that the two main characteristics of non-economic values are their context-dependence and their incommensurability. These attributes need to be preserved and respected when integrating measures to (i) avoid the risk and (ii) address NELD by a central mechanism under the UNFCCC. While (i) will rely on integrating NELD into existing comprehensive risk management approaches, (ii) requires thorough understanding of lost values and the functions they fulfilled for those affected.

Part II - Critical Issues Shaping the Discourse | Pp. 205-220

The Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services and Resulting Losses and Damages to People and Society

Kees van der Geest; Alex de Sherbinin; Stefan Kienberger; Zinta Zommers; Asha Sitati; Erin Roberts; Rachel James

So far, studies of Loss and Damage from climate change have focused primarily on human systems and tended to overlook the mediating role of ecosystems and the services ecosystems provide to society. This is a significant knowledge gap because losses and damages to human systems often result from permanent or temporary disturbances to ecosystems services caused by climatic stressors. This chapter tries to advance understanding of the impacts of climatic stressors on ecosystems and implications for losses and damages to people and society. It introduces a conceptual framework for studying these complex relations and applies this framework to a case study of multi-annual drought in the West-African Sahel. The case study shows that causal links between climate change and a specific event, with subsequent losses and damages, are often complicated. Oversimplification must be avoided and the role of various factors, such as governance or management of natural resources, should be at the centre of future research.

Part II - Critical Issues Shaping the Discourse | Pp. 221-236

Displacement and Resettlement: Understanding the Role of Climate Change in Contemporary Migration

Alison Heslin; Natalie Delia Deckard; Robert Oakes; Arianna Montero-Colbert

How do we understand displacement and resettlement in the context of climate change? This chapter outlines challenges and debates in the literature connecting climate change to the growing global flow of people. We begin with an outline of the literature on environmental migration, specifically the definitions, measurements, and forms of environmental migration. The discussion then moves to challenges in the reception of migrants, treating the current scholarship on migrant resettlement. We detail a selection of cases in which the environment plays a role in the displacement of a population, including sea level rise in Pacific Island States, cyclonic storms in Bangladesh, and desertification in West Africa, as well as the role of deforestation in South America’s Southern Cone as a driver of both climate change and migration. We outline examples of each, highlighting the complex set of losses and damages incurred by populations in each case.

Part II - Critical Issues Shaping the Discourse | Pp. 237-258