Catálogo de publicaciones - libros

Once there is some trust in a model, how well can the climate be predicted?  How are models used to generate predictions and projections? The description and quantification of uncertainty is an element of scientific research. To be useful, predictions and projections require a description and estimate of uncertainty.  Key uncertainties in model predictions and projections are discussed. Then methods of computational experimentation to understand uncertainty are described. Attention is given to ensembles of multiple simulations and multiple models. As an example and application of these ideas, the development of scenarios for future greenhouse gas emissions is examined.

How should quantitative researchers interested in investigating human vulnerabilities across the life course optimize their research designs so they can gather accurate data and draw valid conclusions about the phenomena they wish to explain? This is the question tackled in this book, which includes nine contributions from researchers in Switzerland involved in gathering and analyzing new data for a multi-disciplinary research programme called ‘LIVES – Overcoming Vulnerability: Life Course Perspectives’. The chapters address both the shared and unique challenges involved in surveying specific vulnerable populations and measuring different aspects of vulnerability. The authors share both the strengths and limitations of their empirical research, and bring to light the tensions involved in pursuing ambitious and pioneering substantive research aims, while attempting to uphold the scientific standards prescribed by the literature on survey methodology. In this introductory discussion, we introduce the chapters by describing how they fit within the broader field of research into vulnerability, and how they are contributing to the advancement of substantive and theoretical debates in this domain. We then discuss the concept of survey quality, drawing on the ‘total survey error’ framework to highlight the various challenges faced in conducting surveys in nonstandard contexts. The chapter concludes with a discussion of lessons learned from the LIVES research about the paramount importance of collaboration between subject specialists and methodologists in the design of new research in the field of vulnerability, and of transparency with respect to the documentation of research methods, particularly in interdisciplinary research settings.

This chapter focuses on the “Vivre-Leben-Vivere” (VLV) research and explains how the team in charge has dealt with the issue of representing old people in Switzerland and the vulnerable persons within this population. For this purpose, we draw inspiration from the “total survey error” perspective and discuss the procedures that were used to collect the information, but also the quality of the information itself. We present some of VLV’s methodological choices, such as the contact procedures that were designed to “capture” the most vulnerable individuals, especially in a context where refusal rates for participation in surveys are increasing. We also consider the missing values in responses to some “complex” topics. Results show that participation rates are highly related to the effort that was made in order to recruit the individuals. This is critical for the VLV project, where people can show different degrees of vulnerability related to age, health, and/or poverty. In this sense, efforts such as repeated calls, home visits, and the procedure were successful both in a general perspective and more specifically for a fair inclusion of vulnerable persons in the survey. At the same time, the non-response rates show to what extent it is difficult to explain the personal decision not to respond to a survey or to a question. We can find some traces of “interviewer effects” in the analysis of item non-responses, which we have done by using a logistic regression for one of the psychological tests included in VLV. Some aspects relate to interviewer and respondent characteristics, but others relate to the interview context, all highlighting the complex social interactions at stake.

This chapter aims at understanding the issues of capturing vulnerable populations in large-scale quantitative surveys. A dilemma in survey construction arises when a target vulnerable population to be analyzed cannot be reached using standard survey designs. Indeed, adapting standard procedures may improve access to the targeted vulnerable population; however, these changes may lead to inaccurate comparisons with other population samples. To address this issue, this chapter deals with the data collection process of the large-scale survey on aging (VLV). It highlights the need to adjust standard procedures of a quantitative survey to access elderly migrants and the impact of doing so. Results show the need for a constant dialogue between the scientific requirements and realities of fieldwork to avoid an under-representation in surveys. Finally, providing resources to assess vulnerability is not only a methodological engagement; this is also a major social issue about giving a voice to the voiceless.

This contribution deals with psychological vulnerability resulting from marital breakup after a long-term relationship. Despite the existing vast body of consolidated knowledge on divorce and psychological adaptation, there are still several controversies concerning the vulnerabilizing impact of marital breakup. One major issue refers to the question of whether vulnerability after marital breakup is a temporary crisis or rather a chronic strain. In this chapter we want to present two possible methodological options to tackle this question: First, comparing a sample of almost 1000 middle-aged persons, who were married on average 19 years, and who experienced a marital split within the last 5 years (4 time groups), with a group of age-matched married controls with regard to various indicators of psychological vulnerability (such as depression and hopelessness). Second, comparing within the divorced group the most vulnerable individuals (in terms of depression, hopelessness, life satisfaction) with those who were the least affected, regarding intra-personal resources (personality, resilience), divorce circumstances, post-divorce situation, and socio-economic resources. The study results underline the vulnerabilizing impact of marital breakup, but at the same time they reveal individual differences in psychological adaptation especially due to personality, new partnership, economic resources, and last but not least due to time. Furthermore our data strongly suggest that there is not a generalized psychological vulnerability after marital breakup, but that the emotional dimensions such as depression or feelings of not overcoming the loss are more affected than the more cognitive ones such as life satisfaction.

Breast cancer is a reality for 5000 women in Switzerland every year and, when these women are in a committed relationship, represents a critical event for their partners as well. For this reason, there is now a consensus in the literature to consider breast cancer as an event involving couples as much as women alone. Research should also take into account women and partners and should be extended to couples as a unit. Up to now, it has been difficult to draw a synthesis from the data available in the body of writings on the impact of cancer on couples, as methodologies have been diverse and vary between studies. Thus, the goal of this chapter is first of all to present the advantages and limitations of the two main methods of assessment that are used in the domain of couple relationships: questionnaires and observation. The necessity to combine the different methods is then discussed. At last, comments will be illustrated with a project conducted in Switzerland funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation that formed part of the National Centre of Competence in Research (NCCR) “LIVES – Overcoming Vulnerability: Life Course Perspectives” and which examined couples facing breast cancer using a mixed method approach.

The main purpose of this chapter is to present and to discuss the implementation and the main methodological characteristics, notably in terms of design and research protocol, sampling and data collection procedure via a mixed-mode approach, of our 7-year longitudinal study on professional trajectories. More specifically, adopting several psychological perspectives, this study addresses professional transitions and career pathways and personal experiences – particularly in terms of well-being – of employed and unemployed middle-aged adults (25–55 years) living in Switzerland. Furthermore, based on the first wave of data (N = 2469), we introduce some results concerning, amongst others, the predictors of the choice of the mode to complete the questionnaire and of the intention to participate in the next wave, and possible differences on vulnerability indicators with reference to personal characteristics, resources and professional situation. Finally, considering the procedure implemented and the results emerging from this first wave, we discuss several implications and challenges for the next waves.

Studying career outcomes after job loss is challenging because individually displaced worker form a self-selected group. Indeed, the same factors causing the workers to lose their jobs, such as lack of motivation, may also reduce their re-employment prospects. Using data from plant closures where all workers were displaced irrespective of their individual characteristics offers a way around this selection bias. There is no systematic data collection on workers displaced by plant closure in Switzerland. Accordingly, we conducted our own survey on 1200 manufacturing workers who had lost their job 2 years earlier. The analysis of observational data gives rise to a set of methodological challenges, in particular nonresponse bias. Our survey addressed this issue by mixing data collection modes and repeating contact attempts. In addition, we combined the survey data with data from the public unemployment register to examine the extent of nonresponse bias. Our analysis suggests that some of our adjustments helped to reduce bias. Repeated contact attempts increased the response rate, but did not reduce nonresponse bias. In contrast, using telephone interviews in addition to paper questionnaires helped to substantially improve the participation of typically underrepresented subgroups. However, the survey respondents still differ from nonrespondents in terms of age, education and occupation. Interestingly, these differences have no significant impact on the substantial conclusion about displaced workers’ re-employment prospects.

This chapter discusses the rationale for the use of life history calendars in studying social and psychological vulnerability. Pragmatic and substantive aspects suggest that life history calendars are powerful tools for retrospective surveys on vulnerability. Life history calendars are substantially more cost-effective and easier to implement than prospective longitudinal designs while being in line with the life course paradigm. They can be used as follows: to investigate how people react to negative life events and which resources come into play to overcome conditions of vulnerability; to understand processes of accumulation of (dis)advantages in relation to the concept of vulnerability; and to observe how such processes are constructed across the life course and across life domains. In addition life history calendars address the interconnection between the factual events and their subjective perception by participants. Thus data produced by life history calendars are suitable to different paradigms that apply life histories as a socio-cognitive process. This chapter presents four tools developed at the University of Lausanne and the University of Geneva with a special focus on the operationalisation of different aspects of vulnerability such as the study of accumulation and diffusion effects of (dis)advantages across life domains.

In this chapter we present an online social network created for the study of life transitions of young adults. We first give a brief overview of the overall goals of the study and outline two research questions to be studied with the online social network. We then present the rationale for using and developing our own network. Next, we describe the online social network: the concrete steps of creating the network, its functions and characteristics, and first results based on a sample of 365 young adults. These first findings reveal that the social network has so far not worked as intended: Participants are reluctant to use the network and more effort is required in motivating them to actively use it. We discuss possible reasons for the serious difficulties in attracting participants to engage with the network and relate the problems faced during the development and maintenance of the network. Finally, we outline alternative possibilities of using online social networks in future research.