Catálogo de publicaciones - libros

After reading this passage from a recent issue of The Economist, can one go back to “normal”? Not easily. And even if one thinks that the research on computer-aided methods for conflict resolution and prevention can only contribute a tiny bit to help preventing such horrible events, one has to work on that. The more so as there are already programs available which calculate the risk of losses for a potential aggressor, e.g. the Tactical, Numerical, Deterministic Model (TNDM), developed by the Dupuy Institute (http:// www.dupuyinstitute.org/tndm.htm, last checked 23 Sept 2005); even though programs of this kind sometimes may encourage an intervention in an unjust war.

The chapter deals with the capacities of various regimes to master conflicts. Does the regime character make a difference? Are democratic regimes better in resolving conflicts than autocratic or transitory regimes? The study draws from a wide range of indicators for the independent variables ‘challenges’ and ‘support’ (both are put together in order of ranking with indices as to their management capacities) for each existing state. Besides these explanatory factors, regime factors are calculated independently. The dependent variable ‘conflict’ draws on the data set Kosimo in two ways: first, with the number of conflicts occurring between 1945 and 2000; and second, with the weighted number of internal and neighboring conflicts only. These conflicts are then confronted with the management capacities of each state. Cross-calculations show that, not surprisingly, on the whole democracies have had a better record in the management of conflicts than other regimes.

When in spring 2002 thousands of Argentineans protested against their government’s economic policy, their anger was directed against, amongst other issues, the economic liberalization of the 1990s. After decades of protectionism, the Latin-American state followed the recommendation of the IMF, as did its neighbors, and systematically opened its markets of goods and capital. Critics of globalization considered the Argentinean crisis as an affirmation of their skepticism towards the “Washington consensus”, namely the recipes of liberalization and deregulation. According to their interpretation, economic integration instigates socio-political conflicts because of the redistributive effects of liberalization. While capital owners and multinational firms profit from the renunciation of import substitution and other protectionist measures, the working population and the local industry are, in this perspective, the losers of the new policy.

FAST is a German acronym which stands for early analysis of tensions and fact-finding. It is a political early warning system that aims at enhancing political decision makers’ ability to identify critical developments in a timely manner so that political strategies can be formulated to either prevent or limit destructive effects of violent conflicts or identify windows of opportunity for peacebuilding. Thus, FAST is not merely an academic exercise but tries to impact decision making processes. FAST products are tailored to the needs of practitioners and while we strive for sound intellectual analysis, academic rigor is not an end in itself. We also refrain from using one single methodology but strongly believe in a comprehensive approach using multiple methods. While qualitative analysis is considered to be essential for maintaining a context-specific understanding of the target countries, FAST uses quantitative techniques to manage the huge flow of information and thus to reduce complexity. Figure 4.1. shows how different qualitative and quantitative methodological parts feed into FAST’s core products

The CIFP project was initiated by the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT) in partnership the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, in Ottawa Canada. The project represents an on-going effort to identify and assemble statistical information conveying the key features of the political, economic, social and cultural environments of countries around the world.

There can be no doubt that conflict in general and international conflicts in particular are amongst the most important phenomena that we should study. Tens of millions of people have died as a result of conflict in the last century, untold destruction was wreaked on many societies, and millions of people lost all and became refugees as a result of some conflict or another. No other social process threatens the stability and order of the international system more than conflict. No other social process threatens the complete elimination of another person, group or nation. Clearly, there is much to be learned about conflict and how best to resolve it, to avoid the undesirable and negative consequences associated with conflict. Knowledge about the conditions and causes of conflict, and an understanding of its dynamics and modes of termination can help us transform a potentially violent process into a more constructive one. This chapter purports to suggest a way, a method, of thinking about conflict management, and presenting some ideas for scholars and policy makers that might suggest how best to approach a conflict. Our focus here is avowedly practical, though our approach is strongly theoretical (Deutsch, 1973).

It seems like a lifetime ago, but if one looks back to the heady days after the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the subsequent demise of the Soviet Union, there was certainly a great deal of speculation that the world in general, and the United States in particular, would experience a significantly lower amount of conflict than was the case during the Cold War. In many ways, the world is a safer place than it was during that era, but a quick glance at the experience of the United States since the end of the Cold War will demonstrate that conflict has been an important part of US foreign policy

This study uses hidden Markov models (HMM) to forecast conflict in the former Yugoslavia for the period January 1991 through January 1999. The political and military events reported in the lead sentences of Reuters news service stories were coded into the World Events Interaction Survey (WEIS) event data scheme. The forecasting scheme involved randomly selecting eight 100-event “templates” taken at a 1-, 3- or 6-month forecasting lag for highconflict and low-conflict weeks. A separate HMM is developed for the highconflict- week sequences and the low-conflict-week sequences. Forecasting is done by determining whether a sequence of observed events fit the high-conflict or low-conflict model with higher probability.

This chapter reports about the application of pattern recognition methods from the area of “neural computation” exploring their capabilities for finding structure in a data base of conflict management events since 1945 (Confman: Bercovitch and Langley, 1993; see Chapter 6). In particular, the following two methods were tested

An earlier study by Druckman et al. (1999) showed that a variety of cases of international negotiation can be distinguished in terms of their objectives. A set of 16 features of negotiation effectively distinguished—by multidimensional scaling (MDS)—among the types of international negotiation objectives proposed by Iklé (1964). The features include aspects of the parties, issues, process, negotiating environment, and outcomes. The statistical analyses performed in that study showed a distinct profile for each of the Iklé categories: innovation, re-distribution, extension, normalization, and side effects. In addition, a sixth category was identified as being different than the others. This category was referred to as multilateral regime negotiations, a form that became prevalent twenty years after Iklés book appeared. These results were further supported by discriminant analysis classifications. When only information about the 16 features were known, 78 % (or 21 of 27 cases) were placed in the correct a priori category. These are impressive results. They provide empirical validation for this well-known typology of negotiation. In this chapter, an attempt is made to extend these analyses in several directions with the help of sophisticated methodological approaches not previously used to interpret data on negotiation.