Catálogo de publicaciones - tesis
Título de Acceso Abierto
Impacto ambiental de la variabilidad climática y los eventos extremos en la provincia de Santa Fe, en el contexto del cambio climático
Miguel Ángel Lovino Noberto Oscar García Gustavo Víctor Necco Gabriel Cazes Boezio Rafael Terra Leticia Rodríguez Walter Baethgen
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Resumen/Descripción – provisto por el repositorio digital
The information regarding climate variability and extreme events (EE) and its impact on northeastern Argentina could help to assist decision-making and to achieve efficient climate risk management policies and practices. Precipitation and runoff series present a significant nonlinear trend, showing changes to wetter conditions from 1960 to 2000s and a trend reversal since 2005; together with oscillatory modes of 6.6 to 9 years. The largest and most intense wet extreme precipitation events (EPE) were recorded between 1970 and 2005, affecting agriculture and livestock productivity and impacting human settlements. On the other hand, the most severe droughts, which affected surface water resources and agricultural activities, occurred between 1901 and 1960. Our results suggest that the Central-West portion of the region is highly vulnerable to EPE. The EE of temperature indicate a change to warmer conditions, which would continue in the coming decades. This change might exacerbate the effects of heat islands, increase the problems of surface water quality and affect crop yields. In addition, heavy rainfall presents a continuous increase between 1963 and 2013, the maximum 5-day precipitation amount shows a cycle of 2 years and short-term dry events (intra-annual) rises from 1970. General Circulation Models (GCMs) show high skill in simulating medium temperatures at regional scales, although this models represent precipitation fields with dissimilar efficiencies. A statistical downscaling method allowed us to correct systematic errors of GCMs and to improve model efficiency. The downscale simulations of future climate indicate slightly positive variations of precipitation and increases of mean temperature.Palabras clave – provistas por el repositorio digital
Climate variability; Climate change; Extreme events of precipitation and temperature; Regional climate scenarios; Environmental vulnerability; Sectoral impacts; Variabilidad climática; Cambio climático; Eventos extremos de precipitación y temperatura; Escenarios regionales del clima; Vulnerabilidad ambiental; Impactos sectoriales
Disponibilidad
| Institución detectada | Año de publicación | Navegá | Descargá | Solicitá |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No requiere | 2015 | Biblioteca Virtual de la Universidad Nacional del Litoral (SNRD) |
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Información
Tipo de recurso:
tesis
Idiomas de la publicación
- español castellano
País de edición
Argentina
Fecha de publicación
2015-03-26
