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Russia's Turn to the East

Helge Blakkisrud ; Elana Wilson Rowe (eds.)

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Palabras clave – provistas por la editorial

Development Studies; Regionalism; Russian and Post-Soviet Politics; Asian Politics; Development Economics; Foreign Policy

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Información

Tipo de recurso:

libros

ISBN impreso

978-3-319-69789-5

ISBN electrónico

978-3-319-69790-1

Editor responsable

Springer Nature

País de edición

Reino Unido

Fecha de publicación

Información sobre derechos de publicación

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018

Cobertura temática

Tabla de contenidos

Gateway or Garrison? Border Regions in Times of Geopolitical Crisis

Helge Blakkisrud; Elana Wilson Rowe

Russia’s border regions have had moments as open ‘gateways’ to cooperation. More often, however, the border has been viewed as a ‘garrison’: an outpost of state power. This chapter places the Russian Far East in the broader context of Russia’s pursuit of economic development and security concerns, noting that Russian foreign policy is not necessarily uniform: there are elements of compartmentalization/disaggregation along geographical vectors. The chapter broaches the question that informs all case studies in this volume: has Russia intensified its diplomatic and economic outreach to its eastern border areas and beyond because of the recent breakdown in relations with the West—or would such a shift have taken place anyway, given the economic pull of the Asia-Pacific region?

Pp. 1-9

An Asian Pivot Starts at Home: The Russian Far East in Russian Regional Policy

Helge Blakkisrud

To realize its ambitious goals of turning the Far East into Russia’s gateway to the Asia-Pacific, the Kremlin in 2012 established the Ministry for the Development of the Far East. Structurally, this ministry is a hybrid, with offices at the federal and the regional levels, reflecting both Moscow’s centralized take on policy formulation and the difficulties of micro-managing politics in a region distant in time and space. Analysing whether the new ministry has been a success, the author concludes that, while Moscow’s primary goal has been to open a Far Eastern gateway, a side-effect might be that the Far East will become better integrated with the rest of the country, providing for more balanced development throughout the Federation.

Pp. 11-30

Primorskii Krai and Russia’s ‘Turn to the East’: A Regional View

Tamara Troyakova

This chapter surveys the plans for making Primorskii Krai a key actor in Moscow’s efforts to expand political and economic ties with the countries of Northeast Asia. After a review of key budgetary, administrative, legislative and policy changes accompanying Russia’s ‘turn to the East’, the author examines several specific tools mandated by these changes to see how they have performed in practice in Primorskii Krai: special economic zones of various stripes, a land giveaway programme, transport infrastructure development and efforts to make the region attractive for investors. While the ‘turn to the East’ has brought intensified cooperation with China in the Russian Far East, it seems questionable whether these initiatives have entailed substantial changes in the socioeconomic conditions of the region.

Pp. 31-49

Promoting New Growth: ‘Advanced Special Economic Zones’ in the Russian Far East

Jiyoung Min; Boogyun Kang

To become a major manufacturing hub for East Asia, the Russian Far East must overcome various socioeconomic challenges, including an imbalanced economic structure, decreasing population, and a poor investment climate. To address these challenges, the Russian authorities in 2014 adopted a new development mechanism, ‘advanced special economic zones’ (ASEZs). This chapter discusses pros and cons of introducing ASEZs as investment platforms for cultivating export-oriented industry. Much will depend on the domestic and foreign capital inflow over the next years. If the ASEZ policy works out as planned, in the medium and long term there are possibilities for creating a new industrial value chain linking the Russian Far East with Asia-Pacific markets.

Pp. 51-74

The Russian Far East and Russian Security Policy in the Asia-Pacific Region

Malin Østevik; Natasha Kuhrt

This chapter examines the place of the Russian Far East in Moscow’s security-policy deliberations. Analysing influences ranging from the deployment of Russian armed forces in the Far East to bilateral and multilateral engagements in the Asia-Pacific, and Russian–Chinese attempts at coordination in global politics, the authors find that factors local to the Russian Far East are particularly salient for understanding Russian security policy in the Asia-Pacific. The asymmetry between Russia’s underdeveloped Far Eastern region and the populous and economically thriving countries of the Asia-Pacific region represents a significant vulnerability for Russia. Security concerns related to the social and economic underdevelopment of the Russian Far East have thus prevented the ‘pivot’ from being grounded in broad regional engagement.

Pp. 75-94

Did China Bankroll Russia’s Annexation of Crimea? The Role of Sino-Russian Energy Relations

Indra Overland; Gulaikhan Kubayeva

This chapter analyses bilateral Chinese–Russian energy relations, pre- and post Crimea. The signing of the Power of Siberia megaproject in May 2014, only two months after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, created the impression that China bankrolled Russia out of the crisis. To assess the veracity of this impression, the authors draw a longer timeline of Russian–Chinese cooperation, examining general economic data as well as Chinese involvement in four concrete energy projects managed by leading Russian energy companies. They find that, in general, deals made from 2014 onwards are in line with trends that originated well before the current crisis in Russia’s relations with the West, and that Chinese financial contributions to the sector are not as large as they sometimes appear.

Pp. 95-118

Russia, China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Diverging Security Interests and the ‘Crimea Effect’

Marc Lanteigne

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is an emerging security community created in 2001 to address looming threats, including terrorism and separatism, in the Central Asian region. China and Russia remain the major shapers of the SCO; but in recent years, differences over how the organization should evolve have begun to drive a subtle yet growing wedge between the two powers. Impending challenges related to expansion (India and Pakistan became full members in 2017), deepening Sino-Russian rifts (with China pushing for a stronger economic role for the organization, and Russia being more interested in hard security) and the ‘shadow of Crimea’ are likely to impede any Sino-Russian alliance in the foreseeable future.

Pp. 119-138

Russia’s New Asian Tilt: How Much Does Economy Matter?

Roman Vakulchuk

The economic development of Russia’s Far East has been proclaimed a policy priority, to be facilitated by an ambitious turn or ‘pivot’ to Asia. This chapter assesses Russia’s economic reorientation towards Asia, offering an overview of the Far Eastern dimension of Russia’s economic relations with its major Asian partners in 2010–16, based on analysis of the dynamics of investment, trade relations and business climate development. Since 2014, trade with Asian partners has stagnated, while foreign investment (except for Chinese) has remained negligible. Moreover, trade is still mainly oriented towards markets in European Russia. The chapter concludes that Russia’s pivot to Asia has not yet become an economic pivot—and that such a turn would be more easily attainable under a non-sanctions regime.

Pp. 139-157

Afterword: 6400 Kilometres Away—But Not a Policy World Apart

Elana Wilson Rowe; Helge Blakkisrud

The Afterword presents two key findings from this volume. First, while numerous new strategy documents and instruments have been adopted in recent years, contributing authors voice concern about the steps Moscow has taken to translate lofty ideas into practical policies. Second, the key initiatives were formulated well before the current crisis in Russia’s relations with the West. While a certain rebalancing of the Western and Eastern vectors is taking place, there is still a long way to go before Russia’s ‘window to the East’ can match its ‘window to the West’. Only long-term commitment on the part of Moscow can transform the Russian Far East from a neglected periphery and military outpost into a viable gateway to the Asia-Pacific.

Pp. 159-164