Catálogo de publicaciones - libros

This study investigates the impact of climate change adaptation on farm households’ downside risk exposure in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The analysis relies on a moment-based specification of the stochastic production function. We use an empirical strategy that accounts for the heterogeneity in the decision on whether to adapt or not, and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm. We find that past adaptation to climate change (i) reduces current downside risk exposure, and subsequently the risk of crop failure; (ii) would have been more beneficial to the non-adapters if they adapted, is a successful risk management strategy that makes the adapters more resilient to climatic conditions.

Climate variability, associated with farm-income variability, is recognized as one of the main drivers of livelihood diversification strategies in developing countries. In this chapter, we present a synthesis of two comprehensive studies from Zambia and Malawi on the drivers of diversification and its impacts on selected welfare outcomes with a specific attention to climatic variables and institutions. We use geo-referenced farm-household-level data merged with data on historical rainfall and temperature as well as with administrative data on relevant institutions. The two case studies demonstrate that diversification is clearly an adaptation response, as long term trends in climatic shocks have a significant effect on livelihood diversification, albeit with different implications. Whereas the long term variation in growing period rainfall is associated with increased crop, labour and income diversification in Malawi, it is only associated with increased livestock diversification in Zambia. With regard to institutions, we find that access to extension agents positively and significantly correlates with crop diversification in both countries, underlining the role of extension in promoting more resilient farming systems in rural Zambia and Malawi. Fertilizer subsidies are among the most important agricultural policies in both countries, where they significantly affect incentives for income diversification – though in opposing ways – providing important policy implications. The two case studies document distinct ways in which incentives for livelihood diversification (measured along different dimensions) are shaped by increased variability in rainfall and rural institutions. The results also demonstrate that diversification can be an effective adaptation response and the risk-return trade-offs are not as pronounced as might be expected.

Adoption of improved agricultural practices is shown to vary based on rainfall variability and long-term average maximum temperature, and although such practices increase productivity and profitability on average, their impacts also vary based on climatic conditions. This paper presents a case study on impacts and implications for adoption of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) solutions in the Northern Mountainous Region (NMR) of Viet Nam. We use primary data collected through household and community surveys to conduct profitability estimates of comparative technologies using crop financial models based on partial budget analysis and a study of the determinants of adoption and of yields. In particular, we find that the majority of farmers in NMR rely on ‘conventional’ farming despite indications that sustainable land management practices such as Minimum Tillage (MT) applied to upland maize production, and Fertilizer Deep Placement (FDP) and Sustainable Intensification for Paddy (SIP) production are more profitable. Adoption of MT is greater where long-term variation in rainfall during critical growing periods for maize is higher; FDP and SIP adoption is greater in places where the long-term average of maximum temperatures is higher during critical periods for rice growth. Finally, these improved practices have higher labour and input costs compared to conventional practices, which may prevent or slow adoption.

In this section, we present the results of a consultation with a panel of leading thinkers on agricultural and climate change policy. We interviewed these experts using a set of questions based on the main findings, conclusions, insights and questions that emerged from our set of case studies and conceptual papers. This section is divided into four parts, each focusing on a set of questions relating to the conclusions that emerged from the case study and conceptual chapters. (i) Focus on changes in production systems as adaptation: priorities and policy actions; (ii) Incorporating climate change into agricultural research and extension; (iii) Taking a close look at national policies affecting risk management: index insurance, safety nets and input subsidies and (iv) Priorities for the future and summary of main points. Overall, there is a fairly high level of agreement amongst the panel members in responding to most of the interview questions, although with some difference in emphasis or applications. However there are also some differences of opinion that emerge from their responses. In this chapter, we discuss the main points made on each of the issues addressed, highlighting the areas of agreement, as well as differences.

The efforts to adapt to climate change in developing countries are in their infancy, and hopefully CSA will be a major contributor to these efforts. But CSA itself is evolving, and there is a growing need to refine and adapt it to the changing realities. This section of the book focus on the implications of the empirical findings for devising effective strategies and policies to support resilience and the implications for agriculture and climate change policy at national, regional and international levels. This section is built upon the analysis provided in the case studies as well as short “think” pieces on specific aspects of the policy relevance issues from policy makers as well as leading experts in agricultural development and climate change. The case study provided concrete illustrations of the conceptual and theoretical framework, taking into account the high level of diversity in agro-ecological and socioeconomic situations faced by agricultural planners and policy-makers today. While the case studies demonstrate the diversity of challenges facing farmers around the world, they also indicate unifying characteristics imposed by climate change on agricultural decision making and the potential for the CSA approach to address them.