Catálogo de publicaciones - libros

This paper assesses the economic impacts of the Swiss climate policy formulated under the Kyoto Protocol; the impacts on the carbon price, the welfare cost, and trade effects are examined. Our analysis is based on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world economy (GEMINI-E3) which includes a representation of the Swiss economy. The model is used to evaluate the economic costs incurred in reaching the Swiss emission target through a CO tax, and/or by joining a EU-wide emission trading regime.

This paper provides an overview of extreme climatic events that are a feature of current and future climate that require full understanding if they are to be assessed in terms of social and economic costs. A review will be made of the type of events that can be important in mid-latitudes, with examples taken from heat waves, floods, droughts, and wind-storms that have affected Switzerland during the course of the 20 century. New regional climate model results are also presented for the IPCC A-2 scenario conducted over Europe, to highlight the likely shifts in extremes that may result from warmer global temperatures. The paper will then address some of the issues that need to be considered when attempting to use climate model results for the assessment of economic costs related to extreme climate events.

The impact of increasing atmospheric CO concentrations and climate change on the grassland production in Switzerland is investigated with the help of a simple model of grass growth. The model operates at the seasonal scale. The range of future climatic conditions is represented by three scenarios, one of which mimics the conditions of the heat wave of the summer of 2003. The model results indicate that during the 21st century grassland production could potentially increase by about 50 %. However, less favourable water conditions could offset the beneficial impact of elevated CO and higher temperatures. According to the model predictions, shortage of water during the growing season would follow from a decrease in precipitation and, in one of the scenarios, an increase in potential evapotranspiration. It is argued that production levels close to the potential limit could actually be achieved through irrigation. This measure could be realized at reasonable costs, but its implementation would eventually depend on the competition for water among the different economic actors.

This paper explores the methodological background in climate change impact assessment, focusing on the coupling and co-action between the climate system, the biosphere, and human activities. The aim of this study is to shape a methodological framework to assess regional sensitivity/vulnerability to climate change, by introducing the ombrothermic diagram technique as a basis for analysis. Some aspects of the possible outcome for Switzerland depending on the future climate evolution have been analysed within this framework.