Catálogo de publicaciones - libros

Arguments why stakeholder preferences cannot be modeled as utilities, multicriteria or otherwise, are reviewed. An approach to stakeholder preferences based on well known models for consumer preference in market research is proposed. Simple paired comparisons is used to represent group preferences on an affine unique scale, and regression is used to “explain” these preferences in terms of scores on a number of criteria. Using the rich body of standard regression techniques, we can analyse degree of fit, and we can deal with dependence in the “criteria”. The tasks in stakeholder preference modeling can be apportioned between analysts, experts and stakeholders.

This study is devoted to the analysis of Artificial Marine Systems (AMS) and their optimisation with emphasis on their role of mitigating anthropogenic and technological threats to the environment. Historically, AMS were created and used to enhance fishing catches, protect coastal zones and maintain biodiversity. In recent years, great strides have been made in the understanding of AMS as multifunctional tools to study, monitor and even influence the global warming processes. In fact AMS can serve as global bio-filters and controllable sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide, in the long run mitigating global warming and enhancing sustainable preservation of marine resources. A fuzzy expert system based on the Mamdani-Sugeno modus operandi has been designed, enabling a risk/cost/benefit analysis to be performed, environmental risk to be minimised, and the optimal structure of an AMS (location, cost, size, geometrical forms, etc.) to be found. Special attention is given to the protection of the coral reef in the Eilat-Aqaba Gulf in the Red Sea.

Oil spills present a chronic threat to the environmental security of most major port While mitigation of the risk of oil spills should include prevention, major oil spills remain periodic occurrences. Consequently, spill preparedness and response are critical aspects of minimizing the damage caused by spills. Nonetheless, any major spill response engages multiple stakeholder and public groups that may have different objectives. Currently, spill managers must balance conflicts in the midst of a crisis using ad hoc or heuristic approaches that may be difficult to justify or communicate. Public expectations are particularly challenging to manage. In some cases, the spill response may be perceived as a failure despite the response agency's best efforts. A systematic approach to stating varied spill objectives and tracking progress may result in better management and communication and improve the credibility of spill managers. This research studies two separate spill incidents to reveal the different types of objectives held by engaged personnel and the ways that they assess the progress of the response. A total of 30 interviews are conducted and interpreted using a grounded theory approach to reveal salient objectives. Where possible, metrics relating to these objectives are elicited and the results for each spill compared. Although the quality of the study metrics is not examined in detail, we find that some spill objectives are more readily stated in terms of performance metrics than others, suggesting that spill managers may benefit from greater guidance on how to gauge progress or set goals in areas such as protection of public health and safety or mitigation of sociopolitical or economic impacts.

Over the past several decades, environmental decision-making strategies have evolved into increasingly more sophisticated, information-intensive, and complexapproaches including expert judgment, cost-benefit analysis, toxicological risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, and a number of methods forincorporating public and stakeholder values. This evolution has led to an improved array of decision-making aids, including the development of Multi-CriteriaDecision Analysis (MCDA) tools that offer a scientifically sound decision analytical framework. The existence of different MCDA methods and the availability of corresponding software contribute to the possibility of practical implementation of these methods. However, even though a great deal of work has been done in justifying the theoretical foundation of these methods, real-life applications are rare. The critical attitudes of different MCDA schools toward alternative approaches may have been an obstacle in the application of MCDA. Additionally, no MCDA method is theoretically appropriate for group decision processes, and all MCDA methods and tools necessarily use significant simplifications and assumptions to rank environmental policy alternatives. Nevertheless, this paper illustrates the application of three different MCDA methods in two case studies involving management of contaminated sediments. These case studies are based on real sediment management problems experienced by the US Army Corps of Engineers and other stakeholders in the New York/New Jersey Harbor and the Cocheco Superfund Site in New Hampshire. Our analysis shows that application of three different MCDA tools points to similar management solutions, no matter which tool is applied. MCDA tools and approaches were constructively used to determine the strengths and weaknesses of each method when solving the problem.

ELECTRE TRI is a multiple criteria decision aiding sorting method with a history of successful real-life applications. ELECTRE TRI requires as input severalparameters, such as criteria weights, thresholds, category profiles, and lambda cutting level. We propose the SMAA-TRI method for analyzing the stability ofELECTRE TRI analysis and for deriving robust conclusions. SMAA-TRI is based on Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA), and it allowsELECTRE TRI to be used with imprecise, arbitrarily distributed values for weights and the lambda cutting level. The method computes for each alternative action theshare of parameter values that have it assigned to different categories. We list some potential military applications. To demonstrate SMAA-TRI, we re-analyze a casestudy in the field of risk assessment and management.

Environmental planning and decision-making processes are difficult, because they involve the evaluation of several alternatives in terms of multiple noncommensurate criteria, and a choice must be made considering the points of view of many different stakeholders with conflicting preferences. Much of the associated information can be highly imprecise or uncertain. Successful multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methods for such problems should be able to represent explicitly not only the criteria and preference information, but also the associated uncertainty. We describe how to represent imprecise and/or uncertain criteria measurements and stakeholder preferences through probability distributions, and how to efficiently aggregate this information using stochastic simulation. As an example, we reanalyze the problem of choosing among different options for developing the Helsinki general cargo harbor. We perform the analysis by using the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA-2) method with multivariate Gaussian distributions.

Coastal zones are dynamically evolving systems comprising three components, i.e. the marine, the coastal, and the land subsystem. This is a typical division of a coastal zone and the only common feature that two different coastal zones may present. Concerning other features such as landscape morphology, ecological habitats, land uses, residential development and economic activities, etc., coastal zones present a multivariate environment with various characteristics. In general, there may be three different typologies of coastal zones based on morphological criteria. However, the number of coastal zones types is extremely increased when the specific conditions met in each one of these types are taking into consideration. Several types of human settlements and habitats along with various processes of human and natural origin render an environment with many interdependenciesand risks.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the risks in relevance to human and natural processes, in all three subsystems of a coastal zone. This is an intermediate task before examining the appropriateness of two methodological approaches for risk treatment, i.e. the probability and the fuzzy theory. The two theories are presented and compared in brief to decide their applicability and effectiveness in risk assessment in the different subsystems. This paper contributes to the discussion of integrated risk assessment of coastal zones and provides clear arguments for risk analysts to select the appropriate risk assessment methodology.

The management and rehabilitation of contaminated sites is a complex process encompassing environmental, technological and socioeconomic aspects. In this paper, two decision support systems (DSSs) are briefly reviewed. DESYRE (DEcision Support sYstem for REhabilitation of contaminated sites) provides an integrated platform for the management of complex information, including consideration of actual risk, selection of best technological options for site remediation, socioeconomic drivers, time, and costs. ERA-MANIA aims to improve ecological risk assessment and support expert decision making for assessment and management of contaminated sites. Both systems demonstrate the value of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA).

This paper describes environmental applications of a multi-objective decision aid method based on interactive visualization of the Pareto frontier. The method provides an opportunity to explore the Pareto frontier, that is, the criterion tradeoffs, for three and more criteria. The knowledge about criterion tradeoffs helps stakeholders to better understand the problem, specify the preferred combination of the criterion values (the goal), and compute the associated decision alternatives. The method is introduced on the basis of an example related to coastal water pollution. Then, real-life applications of the method are described in short. Possible applications of this method in the case of risk and uncertainty are discussed. A new Web version of the method can be used for informing lay stakeholders about environmental risks.

Many approaches exist for modeling the response of animals to environmental condition and change. Regardless of the model selected, uncertainty is a major component in the modeling of complex physical-biological relationships. Structured methods exist for handling uncertainty in these modeling studies, and can facilitate decision-making among stakeholders with differing values. We describe two different approaches for modeling population response to environmental pattern. Then, we propose a simple means for incorporating uncertainty into the modeling process using structured and transparent means. First, a model formula is selected and applied with a structured uncertainty analysis during parameterization. Second, Monte Carlo simulation is applied to propagate the uncertainties in the model outputs induced by the uncertain inputs. Finally, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is applied to prioritize model forecasts (i.e., of the likely input conditions) according to perceived value, relevance, accuracy, and uncertainty. The structure discussed is simple and can be modified in many ways to meet the demands of a particular study. This paper provides (1) a brief look at alternatives for modeling animal populations and (2) how these types of models can be applied within a structured and transparent framework for handling uncertainty that saves time, money, and effort.