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Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis

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Palabras clave – provistas por la editorial

Ecosystem services; Sustainable development; Environmental management; Natural resource management; Coastal management; Bangladesh and sea-level rise research; Governance of ecosystem services; Regional climate change in South Asia

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Información

Tipo de recurso:

libros

ISBN impreso

978-3-319-71092-1

ISBN electrónico

978-3-319-71093-8

Editor responsable

Springer Nature

País de edición

Reino Unido

Fecha de publicación

Cobertura temática

Tabla de contenidos

Land Cover and Land Use Analysis in Coastal Bangladesh

Anirban Mukhopadhyay; Duncan D. Hornby; Craig W. Hutton; Attila N. Lázár; Fiifi Amoako Johnson; Tuhin Ghosh

Land cover and land use (LCLU) analysis is a central determinant of the current and future relationship between people and local ecosystem services. It provides the spatial basis for the integrated analysis of the study area. Historical change (1989–2010) is identified using classification techniques based on available satellite imagery supported by other data. Nine categories of LULC are identified; water, (brackish shrimp farming), (freshwater prawn farming), agriculture (non-waterlogged), agriculture (waterlogged), wetlands and mudflats, mangrove, rural settlements and major urban areas. The analysis shows an increase in aquaculture (mainly replacing rice fields), with agriculture becoming more intermixed with settlements. Future LULC scenarios are determined based on stakeholder narratives.

Part 4 - Observations and Potential Trends | Pp. 367-381

A Geospatial Analysis of the Social, Economic and Environmental Dimensions and Drivers of Poverty in South-West Coastal Bangladesh

Fiifi Amoako Johnson; Craig W. Hutton

Census and spatial data are used to analyse geographical variations in poverty and identify the key socio-economic and environmental drivers of poverty. Results show a strong clustering of poverty within the study area with multivariate analysis indicating a significant association with environmental predictors. However, whilst increasing intensity of salinity intrusion is significantly associated with poverty, neither large shrimp nor freshwater prawn farms impact on poverty. The strong association identified between salinity intrusion and poverty could be attributed to loss of arable land, reduced agricultural productivity and income, food insecurity, rural unemployment, social unrest, conflicts and forced migration. This analysis provides important inputs to the integrated analysis of coastal Bangladesh and the delta.

Part 4 - Observations and Potential Trends | Pp. 383-403

Defining Social-Ecological Systems in South-West Bangladesh

Helen Adams; W. Neil Adger; Munir Ahmed; Hamidul Huq; Rezaur Rahman; Mashfiqus Salehin

Seven distinct social-ecological systems are defined for the Bangladesh delta, based on analysis of the ways in which social systems differ according to the ecological system. These systems are rain-fed and irrigated agriculture, brackish and freshwater aquaculture, Charlands, coastal zones, and areas dependent on the Sundarbans mangrove forest. The social systems that inhibit or facilitate access to ecosystem services vary between social-ecological systems. The timing and nature of ecosystem services give rise to different livelihood opportunities, means of access to ecosystem services, and coping mechanisms. Thus, while the common challenge across all social-ecological systems is to design mechanisms by which the poorest populations retain value and benefits, these mechanisms will differ depending on the system.

Part 4 - Observations and Potential Trends | Pp. 405-423

Characterising Associations between Poverty and Ecosystem Services

Helen Adams; W. Neil Adger; Sate Ahmad; Ali Ahmed; Dilruba Begum; Mark Chan; Attila N. Lázár; Zoe Matthews; Mohammed Mofizur Rahman; Peter Kim Streatfield

Social survey and geographical data, stratified by social-ecological systems, are used to analyse multiple measures of poverty, in-depth information on rural livelihoods and coping strategies for populations in the delta region. The resultant dataset provides extensive information on the ways in which households use ecosystem services to generate well-being. Analysis of the data shows that any reliance on provisioning ecosystem services for farming, aquaculture, fisheries or forest products increases the likelihood of households being above the poverty line. However, high levels of ecosystem service use are associated with high levels of well-being only in those with significant land assets and associated social capital. The data also provide a quantitative baseline understanding that is fundamental to the integrated analysis.

Part 4 - Observations and Potential Trends | Pp. 425-444

Prospects for Agriculture Under Climate Change and Soil Salinisation

Derek Clarke; Attila N. Lázár; Abul Fazal M. Saleh; Mohammad Jahiruddin

Agriculture is the largest and most important provisioning ecosystem in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta and is significantly affected by levels of soil and water salinity. Model-based assessment using both soil moisture and salt balance models indicate that whilst monsoon rains supply adequate water to grow a main season rice crop, agricultural diversity is currently constrained by the limited availability of good quality irrigation water in the dry season. There is a tipping point of water salinity around four parts per thousand beyond which soil salinity accumulates. Although the development of soil salinity is an environmental process, soil salinisation is closely linked to farmers’ behaviour and land use practices. It is also closely associated with the decline in other ecosystem services associated with water regulation.

Part 5 - Present and Future Ecosystem Services | Pp. 447-467

Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries: Trends and Prospects

Manuel Barange; Jose A. Fernandes; Susan Kay; Mostafa A. R. Hossain; Munir Ahmed; Valentina Lauria

Within the Bangladesh delta there is a significant dependence on aquatic ecosystem services both economically and for local well-being. The fisheries industry has seen steady growth with production tripling in the last two decades, largely driven by the expansion in inland aquaculture fisheries. Analysis shows that the impacts of climate change are likely to decrease the potential total fish production in the marine waters of Bangladesh by less than ten per cent. However, these potential impacts are much larger for the two major commercial species, Hilsa shad and Bombay duck. Under sustainable management practices, climate effects are likely to reduce Hilsa and Bombay duck catches by 2050 by up to 40 per cent of the current catches, with larger declines possible under unsustainable management. This underlines the importance of management adaptations to minimize the effects of climate change, particularly in situations where current exploitation rates exceed sustainable limits.

Part 5 - Present and Future Ecosystem Services | Pp. 469-488

Dynamics of the Sundarbans Mangroves in Bangladesh Under Climate Change

Anirban Mukhopadhyay; Andres Payo; Abhra Chanda; Tuhin Ghosh; Shahad Mahabub Chowdhury; Sugata Hazra

Mangroves provide a range of ecosystem services ranging from mitigation of global climate change by carbon capture to the sustenance of local communities whose livelihood depends upon mangrove forest products. A hybrid model is used to analyse and project the spatial distribution of mangrove species assemblages with results showing that the distribution will alter substantially within a hundred years associated with a significant decrease in the forest cover area. These changes are reflected in the amount of carbon sequestered in the mangroves in the form of biomass with a decrease anticipated over this century. Simulations of relative sea-level rise also indicate a loss in mangrove area mainly driven by erosion rather than inundation. Re-afforestation is one option of management strategy which could compensate for these changes.

Part 5 - Present and Future Ecosystem Services | Pp. 489-503

Hypertension and Malnutrition as Health Outcomes Related to Ecosystem Services

Ali Ahmed; Mahin Al Nahian; Craig W. Hutton; Attila N. Lázár

Human health and well-being is related to the provision of nutrition and food diversity for each socio-ecological system within the study area. Analysis of data from the household survey indicates that under-five malnutrition is higher than the national average within all socio-ecological systems, while adult malnutrition is slightly lower than the national average. Food diversity, particularly calorific and protein intake associated with fish and home-grown food production and consumption, is shown to be beneficial in reducing malnutrition. Although table salt is the highest contributor in daily consumption of sodium, salinity levels of domestic water sources show a correlation with hypertension, irrespective of age and gender, which is higher than the national average. These salinity levels are likely to increase over the twenty-first century.

Part 5 - Present and Future Ecosystem Services | Pp. 505-521

Integrative Analysis Applying the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model in South-West Coastal Bangladesh

Attila N. Lázár; Andres Payo; Helen Adams; Ali Ahmed; Andrew Allan; Abdur Razzaque Akanda; Fiifi Amoako Johnson; Emily J. Barbour; Sujit Kumar Biswas; John Caesar; Alexander Chapman; Derek Clarke; Jose A. Fernandes; Anisul Haque; Mostafa A. R. Hossain; Alistair Hunt; Craig W. Hutton; Susan Kay; Anirban Mukhopadhyay; Robert J. Nicholls; Abul Fazal M. Saleh; Mashfiqus Salehin; Sylvia Szabo; Paul G. Whitehead

A flexible meta-model, the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM), is developed to capture the socio-biophysical system of coastal Bangladesh as simply and efficiently as possible. Operating at the local scale, calculations occur efficiently using a variety of methods, including linear statistical emulators, which capture the behaviour of more complex models, internal process-based models and statistical associations. All components are tightly coupled, tested and validated, and their behaviour is explored with sensitivity tests. Using input data, the integrated model approximates the spatial and temporal change in ecosystem services and a number of livelihood, well-being, poverty and health indicators of archetypal households. Through the use of climate, socio-economic and governance scenarios plausible trajectories and futures of coastal Bangladesh can be explored.

Part 6 - Integration and Dissemination | Pp. 525-574

Communicating Integrated Analysis Research Findings

Mashrekur Rahman; Md. Munsur Rahman

Dissemination of research results and implications within Bangladesh is important to promote understanding both for the local population and those making decisions regarding ecosystem services. A variety of national to local dissemination tools are discussed with particular emphasis on indigenous cultural theatrical performances and workshops in local communities. A bespoke ‘Pot Song’ was developed which expresses the concept of ecosystem services, consequences of climate change and implications for local livelihoods. This achieved a high level of engagement with local communities, who appreciated the clarity of the information. The ‘Pot Song’ also provides a shared understanding as a basis for group discussions. This ensures a more productive use of limited time at workshops.

Part 6 - Integration and Dissemination | Pp. 575-586