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The chapter starts with a discussion of general patterns and processes in terrestrial ecosystems, including the impacts of climate change in relation to productivity, phenology, trophic matches and mismatches, range shifts and biodiversity. Climate impacts on specific ecosystem types—forests, grasslands, heathlands, and mires and peatlands—are then discussed in detail. The chapter concludes by discussing links between changes in inland ecosystems and the wider North Sea system. Future climate change is likely to increase net primary productivity in the North Sea region due to warmer conditions and longer growing seasons, at least if summer precipitation does not decrease as strongly as projected in some of the more extreme climate scenarios. The effects of total carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems are highly uncertain, due to the inherent complexity of the processes involved. For moderate climate change, land use effects are often more important drivers of total ecosystem carbon accumulation than climate change. Across a wide range of organism groups, range expansions to higher latitudes and altitudes and changes in phenology have occurred in response to recent climate change. For the range expansions, some studies suggest substantial differences between organism groups. Habitat specialists with restricted ranges have generally responded very little or even shown range contractions. Many of already threatened species could be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, effects of recent climate change on terrestrial ecosystems within the North Sea region are still limited.

Fishers and scientists have known for over 100 years that the status of fish stocks can be greatly influenced by prevailing climatic conditions. Based on historical sea surface temperature data, the North Sea has been identified as one of 20 ‘hot spots’ of climate change globally and projections for the next 100 years suggest that the region will continue to warm. The consequences of this rapid temperature rise are already being seen in shifts in species distribution and variability in stock recruitment. This chapter reviews current evidence for climate change effects on fisheries in the North Sea—one of the most important fishing grounds in the world—as well as available projections for North Sea fisheries in the future. Discussion focuses on biological, operational and wider market concerns, as well as on possible economic consequences. It is clear that fish communities and the fisheries that target them will be very different in 50 or 100 years’ time and that management and governance will need to adapt accordingly.

Europe is one of the world’s largest and most productive suppliers of food and fibre. In the North Sea region, agroecosystems vary from highly productive farming systems such as the arable cropping systems of western Europe to low-input and low-output farming systems with or without livestock. Climate change impacts on agricultural production will vary across the North Sea region, both in terms of crops grown and yields obtained. Given adequate water and nutrient supply, a doubling of atmospheric CO concentration could lead to yield increases of 20–40 % for most crops grown in the North Sea region. The high-input farming systems could also respond favourably to modest warming. Extreme weather events may severely disrupt crop production. Increased temperature and more frequent extreme weather events could affect animal production through changes in feed production, changes in the availability of grazing, direct heat stress, and increased risk of disease. Overall, there seems to be potential for agriculture in the North Sea region to adapt to the changing climate in such a way that productivity and profitability may both increase, particularly over the long term. The challenge will be to ensure sustainable growth in agricultural production without compromising environmental quality and natural resources.

The energy sector has a strong presence in the North Sea and in the surrounding coastal areas. Commercial extraction of offshore oil and gas and related activities (exploration, transportation and distribution; pipelines; oil refining and processing) constitutes the single most important economic sector and renewable electricity generation—mainly from offshore wind—is increasing. Energy and offshore activities in the North Sea are critically vulnerable to climate change along the full supply chain. The major vulnerabilities for offshore installations like rigs, offshore wind energy and pipelines concern wind storms and extreme wave heights, whereas on land coastal installations and transportation may also be adversely affected by flooding. Future renewable energy potentials in the North Sea are also susceptible to climate change. Whereas the hydropower potential is expected to increase, it is highly uncertain how much the future potential of other renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, terrestrial biomass, or emerging technologies like wave, tidal or marine biomass could be positively or negatively affected. Due to the different national energy supply mixes the vulnerability to climate-related impacts will vary among North Sea countries. To ensure safe and reliable future operations comprehensive and systematic risk assessments are therefore needed which account for, for example, the high integration of power systems in the region.

About 80 % of the population within the North Sea countries currently lives in an urban area and this percentage is projected to continue to rise. Urban areas are not only impacted by changes in regional climate but are themselves responsible for causing local modifications in regional climate resulting in the so-called ‘urban climate’. The urban climate in North Sea cities has several common features: higher temperatures relative to the surrounding regions (especially at night), greater temperature variability, deeper but less stable boundary layers at night, lower average wind speeds but stronger gusts, reduced evapotranspiration, and greater air pollution (local exceedances of limit values for nitrogen oxides, nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter, with ship emissions a relevant contributor in harbour cities). Indications of climate change are now apparent and include hinterland flooding, more intense precipitation, and drier and warmer summers. Cities contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and measures are needed to reduce these. Cities also need to adapt to climate change. Despite broad similarities between urban areas, in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change there are large location-specific differences with regard to city planning needs. Hamburg and London are used as examples. Adaptation measures include better insulation of buildings to reduce energy use and anthropogenic heat emissions, higher dykes to protect against increased water levels, and rain water drainage to avoid hinterland flooding. Scenarios are outlined for urban development with greened roofs, higher albedo values and lower sealing of surfaces.

In the North Sea region, poor air quality has serious implications for human health and the related societal costs are considerable. The state of air pollution is often used as a proxy for air quality. This chapter focuses on the two atmospheric pollutants of most significance to human health in Europe—particulate matter and ground-level ozone. These are also important ‘climate forcers’. In the North Sea area, the effects on air quality of emission changes since preindustrial times are stronger than the effects of climate change. According to model simulations, this is also the case for future air quality in the North Sea region, but substantial variation in model results implies considerable uncertainty. Short-term events such as heat waves can have substantial impacts on air quality and some regional climate models suggest that heat waves may become more frequent in the coming decades. If the reductions in air pollutant emissions expected through increasingly stringent policy measures are not achieved, any increase in the severity or frequency of heat waves may have severe consequences for air quality. Climate and air quality interact in several ways and mitigation optimised for a climate or air quality target in isolation could have synergistic or antagonistic effects.

Tourism is one of the most highly climate-sensitive economic sectors. Most of its main sub-sectors, including sun-and-beach tourism and nature-based tourism, play a major role in the North Sea region and are especially weather–und climate-dependent. On top of that, most tourist activities in the North Sea region occur in the coastal zones which are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Climate acts as both a ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factor in tourism. Climate-driven changes in tourism demand are hard to determine because the tourist decision-making process is also influenced by factors other than climate. Nevertheless, summer tourism in the North Sea region is expected to benefit from rising temperatures (air and water), decreasing precipitation and longer seasons. Destinations can reduce the negative impacts of climate change on tourism by adapting to the changes. The tourist industry also contributes to climate change. Not only is the tourist industry affected by climate change, it also contributes to climate change itself. Therefore, mitigating the climate effects of tourism is largely the responsibility of politicians, the tourism industry and tourism supply. Despite some negative impacts, the overall consequences of climate change for tourism in the North Sea region are expected to be positive.

All North Sea countries are confronted by climate change impacts such as accelerated sea-level rise, increasing storm intensities resulting in as well higher set-up of storm surges as growing wave energy and a follow-up of morphological changes. Thus it is necessary to question the effectiveness of existing coastal protection strategies and to examine alternative strategies for coastal protection under a range of scenarios considered possible. Scenarios of accelerating sea-level rise leading to changes in sea level of up to 1 m or more by 2100 and higher set-up of storm surges with increasing wave energy have been used for planning purposes. Adaptation strategies for future coastal protection have been established in all North Sea countries with vulnerable coasts, observing two propositions: (1) structures are economic to construct in the short term and their dimensions easily adapted in the future to ensure flexibility in responding to the as yet undeterminable climate change impacts and (2) implementation of soft measures being temporarily effective and preventing counteraction to natural trends. The coastal protection strategies differ widely from country to country, not only in respect of distinct geographical boundary conditions but also in terms of the length of the planning period and the amount of regulations. Their further development is indispensable and emphasis must more and more be laid on strategies considering the effects of long-term development of coastal processes for future coastal protection. Filling gaps in knowledge is essential for developing sustainable adaptation strategies.

Climate change will have important impacts on the North Sea coastal zones. Major threats include sea-level rise and the associated increase in flood risk, coastal erosion and wetland loss, and hazards arising from more frequent storm surges. The North Sea countries—Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the UK—have developed strategies to deal with these threats. This chapter provides a short introduction to the present adaptation strategies and highlights differences and similarities between them. All the North Sea countries face dilemmas in the implementation of their adaptation strategies. Uncertainty about the extent and timing of climate-driven impacts is a major underlying cause. In view of this, adaptation plans focus on no-regret measures. The most considered measures in the North Sea countries are spatial planning in the coastal zone (set-back lines), wetland restoration, coastal nourishment and reinforcement of existing protection structures. The difficulty of identifying the climate-driven component of observed change in the coastal zone is a critical obstacle to obtaining a widely shared understanding of the urgency of adaptation. A better coordinated and more consistent approach to marine monitoring is crucial for informing policy and the general public and for developing the adaptive capacity of institutions and wider society. A dedicated coastal observation network is not yet in place in the North Sea region.